Under the current background of real estate regulation, the market research on the demand side of the household industry is gradually extending to the policy side, and the policy game may increase the uncertainty of the demand side research. Based on this, in the current situation that the concentration of the home industry is still low, it may be more necessary to study whether the concentration can be improved and how fast it can be improved. Therefore, we believe that the research on the supply side of the home industry may be more focused from 2022. Based on this idea, this report confirms whether the “whole customization” committed to integrating the whole soft decoration supply chain can become a turning point for accelerating the concentration of the industry, and further deconstructs the key elements of the supply side to promote the pattern optimization in the future.
Industry perspective
Whether the scattered pattern of the home & home decoration industry cannot be broken: the scattered and difficult concentration of the competition pattern of the home & home decoration industry has been a difficult problem in the industry for many years. The regional characteristics of the home decoration industry are obvious, and the same is true for home. After calculation, the concentration of the three subdivided categories of home is ranked as soft bed and mattress sofa cabinet, and the highest concentration of mattress category Cr4 in 2020 is only 16.9%. From the supply side, the current mainstream view is that the non-standard attributes of products make the scale effect unable to reflect the concentration of influence shares. However, we believe that this only determines the upper limit of concentration, rather than the core element affecting the concentration trend. At present, among the many pain points of consumers, those that can be solved by relying on the capacity of the supply side have not been solved, Therefore, we believe that effectively solving the relevant pain points or head enterprises based on the perspective of consumers is the key to solve the problem of industry pattern dispersion in the future.
From multiple perspectives, whether “whole home customization” can become a trend: “whole home customization” is a new model launched by home decoration companies, Internet giants and home stores through the integration of soft decoration supply chain because they do not have the ability of hard decoration. At present, the “iterative” home decoration mode is still the most difficult to realize in the short term. In addition, from the perspective of consumers, when post-80s and post-90s home consumers account for more than 90%, the “whole family customization” has begun to think from the perspective of the needs of new consumer groups to solve some consumption pain points of this group. From the perspective of dealers and brands, “whole family customization” undoubtedly meets the core demands of expanding categories, expanding customer orders, increasing share and regaining traffic entrance on the supply side under the current weak growth of natural traffic. On the whole, the “whole family customization” model meets the demands of many parties, and does not have the basis for iteration in the medium and short term, and the sustainability of the model can be expected.
What does the supply side of “whole customization” compete for: we deduce through the superposition theory of grassroots research in many places. First, from the perspective of dealers, we deconstruct the whole process of a single store from obtaining customers to facilitating order transaction, and then from the perspective of brands, we respectively confirm the ability of these elements to meet the needs of brands. We found that in the era of “whole family customization”, product R & D and iteration, supply chain integration and production capacity are only the basis of brand competition under the background of this era, and informatization, channel management and enabling capacity will be the key to determine the upper limit of brand growth. “Whole customization” is already a competition for the comprehensive ability of enterprises, and the layout of head enterprises has obviously taken the lead in the industry. “Whole customization” may be a key turning point in accelerating the concentration of the industry.
What are the constant top-level competitive elements in the changing era: the home industry has the characteristics of long value chain, many product categories and heavy service. Each link needs top-level organizational force as the adhesive. With the expansion of scale and the increase of complexity of dealer system, in order to ensure efficiency, it is more necessary to make good use of organizational force and pursue entropy reduction. The home industry is essentially an organization capability intensive industry. The industry has gradually developed from the era of single product to “whole customization”. In this process, the ability requirements for enterprises are also changing. We believe that the constant top-level competitive element under various changes is the organizational competition of enterprises. Orderly enterprise and distribution system architecture and organization construction is the key to maximize the release of enterprise capabilities to support the development iteration of different models in the future, or the key to promote pattern optimization from the supply side of the industry.
Investment advice
Focus on Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) and Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) and Minhua holdings, which are obviously leading the industry in terms of comprehensive ability, are recommended.
Risk tips
The completion of the property is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Industry competition intensifies;
