Industry comments
The rebound performance of real estate and property sectors this week was brilliant. This week, Shenwan A-share real estate sector rose or fell by + 2%, ranking first among all sectors; Wind Hong Kong stocks and real estate sector rose or fell by + 4.2%, ranking seventh among all sectors. This week, the Hang Seng property service and management index rose or fell by + 3.7%, the Hang Seng China enterprise index rose or fell by + 4.3%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose or fell by – 0.9%; The relative returns of the property index to Hang Seng China enterprise index and CSI 300 were – 0.7% and + 4.6% respectively.
The activity of homestead transaction increased with the concentrated land auction in four cities. This week, 7.09 million square meters of residential land was sold in 300 cities across the country, with a one week ring ratio of 190%, a one week year-on-year ratio of – 36%, and an average premium rate of 7% (concentrated land auction in Hefei, Fuzhou, Qingdao and Xuzhou). Since the beginning of 2022, a total of 83.07 million square meters of residential land has been sold in 300 cities across the country, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of – 56%.
On Monday, the sales area of hand / second-hand houses continued to decline month on month and year-on-year. This week, commercial housing transactions in 40 cities totaled 3.57 million square meters, with a week-on-week ratio of – 9% and a week-on-year ratio of – 48%. Second hand housing transactions in 17 cities totaled 1.27 million square meters this week, with a week-on-week ratio of – 14% and a year-on-year ratio of – 43%.
The tone of the speech of the State Council’s gold stability meeting has been set, and the tone of real estate regulation has shifted to loose. ① In his speech at the special meeting of the financial stability Council of the State Council, vice premier Liu he pointed out that “with regard to real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model”. Subsequently, the Ministry of finance, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of foreign exchange and other ministries and commissions jointly responded. ② Since September 2021, the tone of real estate regulation has gradually changed from strict to loose, from “two maintenance” to “virtuous circle and healthy development”, from “supporting M & A loans” to “reducing LPR”, from the re emphasis of the two sessions on “promoting virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban measures” to the speech of the financial stability meeting of the State Council. We believe that the current tone of loose real estate regulation has been clear.
The sales performance is still relatively low, and the stability of real estate enterprises needs policy support. ① From the national data, from January to February 2022, the investment in real estate development was + 3.7% year-on-year, the new construction area of houses was – 12.2% year-on-year, the sales area of commercial houses was – 9.6% year-on-year, and the sales amount of commercial houses was – 19.3% year-on-year; The growth rate of new / second-hand housing price index in 70 large and medium-sized cities gradually stabilized month on month. ② From the perspective of typical cities, the transaction data of first-hand houses in 40 cities and second-hand houses in 17 cities continued to decline year-on-year and month on month. ③ The sales, investment and financing of real estate enterprises are still severe. On the sales side, the sales amount of top 20 real estate enterprises from January to February 2022 is – 40% year-on-year; On the investment side, since the beginning of 2022, the transaction and construction area of 300 residential land in China has been – 56% year-on-year. The main land acquisition real estate enterprises are state-owned enterprises and central enterprises such as China Resources, green city, poly, construction and development, etc; On the financing side, the domestic and foreign financing channels of most private real estate enterprises have not been fully restored, and they still face great pressure on debt payment. We believe that although many cities have issued relevant real estate assistance policies, the effect on sales is not obvious, and more policies similar to the “Article 19 of Zheng” are needed; At the same time, due to the current severe epidemic situation, the landing time and effect of regulation and relaxation policies may be affected. It is necessary to use more direct credit tools, such as state-owned assets injection, to alleviate the cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises and promote a virtuous circle of the real estate industry.
Investment advice
The loose tone of real estate regulation has been made clear, and we expect more policies and measures and credit tools to coordinate supply and demand to be implemented one after another. In the real estate sector, we are optimistic about green city China, China Construction Development International and Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) . For the property sector, we believe that after the implementation of the loose policy, the liquidity crisis of the affiliated real estate enterprises of private property companies will be lifted, and we recommend Jinke service and country garden service.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation affects the effect of policy implementation; Head real estate enterprise thunderstorm
