Main points:
The demand for new energy vehicles is transmitted to good digestion cost, and the market demand is the fundamental supporting factor of cost transmission
Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng, Nezha and other auto companies recently raised the prices of some new energy models, mainly due to the shortage of chips, the rise in the prices of raw materials such as lithium batteries and the decline of subsidies, but did not reverse the downstream demand. 1) The new energy vehicle market is in the stage of vigorous development and fierce competition. The primary goal of vehicle enterprises is to ensure the supply chain and seize the share. The rise in the cost of a single link has not affected the vehicle launch and the overall market demand. 2) according to the 21q4 performance of overseas lithium enterprises, there is still a large gap between the lithium price and the current market price, reflecting that the lithium cost of head battery factories and vehicle factories still has an advantage. 3) the rise in lithium price has been gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, The cost pressure of the battery factory has been gradually transmitted to the terminal through price negotiation with the car factory. From January to February, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 765000, with a year-on-year increase of 154.7%, showing that the product power of new energy vehicles strongly supports the consumer demand driven by marketization, and gradually eliminates the market’s concerns about orders and delivery due to the decline of subsidies and price rise. The market demand is the fundamental supporting factor for cost transmission.
Market mechanism supply and demand determine the trend of lithium price. The demand structure and growth support the sustainability of high lithium price, with remarkable performance
In the process of price change and cost transmission, the relationship between supply and demand is the decisive factor of lithium price under the background of market mechanism. The two major cycles in the history of lithium industry are mainly driven by the application of downstream consumer products. Since the third quarter of 2020, under the outbreak of new energy vehicle industry chain and the future market demand for high-capacity energy storage, with the changes of lithium demand structure and growth logic, the lithium industry will show strong growth supported by the great development of new energy. The core of the fundamentals supporting the current round of lithium price rise lies in the significant change of demand side structure and growth logic. Lithium supply may become the decisive factor for the release of capacity in the middle and lower reaches. The high sustainability of lithium price has solid fundamental support and profits move up.
Administrative coordination accelerates the development of lithium resources and ensures the safety of the industrial chain
The Ministry of industry and information technology held a lithium industry symposium with the national development and Reform Commission, requiring the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain to strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, and jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt prices. All links of administrative coordination should speed up the development of China’s lithium resources, ensure the supply of lithium resources, fully follow the market rules, ensure the safety of the supply chain from the market mechanism, strengthen the industrial competitiveness, and better support the healthy development of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile, a strategic emerging industry.
Investment suggestions: three main lines: first, capacity release, cost pressure relief and gross profit recovery. Battery plants: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc; 2. Lithium resource companies with high lithium price supported by supply and demand and expected to realize excess profits: Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , etc; Three mid stream material link companies that have clear patterns, clear advantages, and a clear, dominant, and still tight supply and demand: the mid stream material link companies that have a clear pattern, clear advantage, and obvious middle stream material link companies that have a clear pattern, clear advantage, and clear middle stream material link companies: the ‘ Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) \ , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , etc.
Risk warning: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; Downstream demand is lower than expected; Product prices fell more than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates. It is recommended to pay attention to the company’s profit forecast and rating:
