Sector market review
This week (03 / 14-03 / 18), the transportation index fell 2.33%, the CSI 300 index fell 0.94%, underperformed the market by 1.39%, ranking 21 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the airport sector increased the most (1.63%), and the express sector decreased the most (- 4.90%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: according to the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express delivery industry on March 1, the express delivery price in Zhejiang Province shall not be lower than the cost recently, and the express industry is developing to a higher quality. In February, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 6.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.7%; Business income reached 65.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%; The single ticket income was 9.51 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.86%. Among them, the business volume of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong increased by 73.47%, 82.83% and 85.59% year-on-year, and the single ticket income decreased month on month. From January to February, the consolidated business volume increased by 19.62% year-on-year, and the business volume of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong increased by 30.71%, 27.77% and 38.96% year-on-year. The growth rate of head express enterprises was higher than that of the industry. The performance of express enterprises has entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the main business data from January to February 2022. At present, the express business has completed 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.36% S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%, deducting non net profit of 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%. SF intends to repurchase some of the company’s shares for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive. The total amount of funds to be repurchased shall not be less than RMB 1 billion and not more than RMB 2 billion, and the repurchase price shall not exceed RMB 70 / share.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the supervision becomes stricter, which limits the supply of the industry, and the demand side still grows every year. The performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain, focusing on Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) . The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airport: from March 27, 2022, the national civil aviation will implement the flight plan of summer and autumn flight season in 2022. International liberalization is still slow, and SIA season continues to revolve around internal circulation. If the transit and connecting flights are calculated by two shifts, the weekly flight volume of SIA in the season of Air China is 123850, an increase of 7% year-on-year in the summer and autumn flight season of 2021 and 16% compared with the summer and autumn flight season of 2019 before the epidemic. Starting from March 5, the fuel surcharge of air tickets on Chinese routes was raised to 20 yuan or 40 yuan, covering some of the rising fuel costs. The national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, and suspended the advance payment of value-added tax by air transport enterprises for one year. Covid-19 antigen detection, home self-test landing, paxlovid is an important means to treat covid-19, and catalyzes the release of international expectations. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the average annual growth of takeoff and landing sorties from 2019 to 2025 was 6.5%, lower than the previous growth rate of more than 10%, and the industry supply was tightened. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normality in production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines, the restriction policy is expected to be relaxed, the operation of airports will be significantly improved, the investment value of the sector is highlighted, and it is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 330110 points, down 1.93% month on month; The SCFI index was 454031 points, down 1.8% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 112700, down 14.1% month on month and up 49.7% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 994.00, down 5.7% month on month and up 75.0% year on year. We are concerned about the recovery of oil transportation.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
