According to the release of economic data related to building materials from January to February, it is suggested to pay attention to the subdivided varieties that improve the industry pattern and continuously increase the share of leading cities. With the release of construction related economic data from January to February, we think we should focus on two issues. 1. No physical workload is formed for the project under construction, resulting in the deviation between the new construction and the cement output. Under the combined effect of infrastructure investment yoy + 8.6% and real estate construction yoy-12.2%, the cement demand should be flat or decline slightly, which is different from the cement output yoy-17.8%. We believe that with the rapid growth of special debt data for five consecutive months, the growth of infrastructure investment of 8.6% is highly representative. From a policy perspective, under the pressure of the international situation, the epidemic and the US interest rate hike, there is great pressure to achieve economic growth of 5.5% without infrastructure support. The decline of new construction in real estate is less than expected. We believe that the definition of new construction is based on breaking the earth and digging the groove. In 2021, due to the epidemic, the actual construction days from January to February are significantly more than those in 2022. Therefore, it is likely that most new construction projects in real estate have not formed physical workload, resulting in insufficient actual demand for upstream building materials and a sharp decline in cement production. 2. Insufficient efforts to improve the capital of real estate enterprises lead to sluggish demand for completion. The real estate completed 120 million square meters, yoy-9.8%; It is consistent with the pressure on glass prices since late February. We believe that the reason behind this is that the improvement of real estate funds is limited. At present, the priority of real estate enterprises for the use of funds is first to repay due debts, second to promote existing projects, and third to carry out new projects. Since 2022, the number of thunderstorms in real estate enterprises has decreased, but the completion data has increased significantly. It can be seen that the capital level has improved, but it is only the first level of improvement. Through the economic data, we believe that the current demand for building materials in the early cycle and later cycle is relatively weak, while the strengthened control under the rebound of the epidemic has affected the production, logistics, construction and other business links of individual building materials enterprises, and the performance of the first quarter is expected to be further under pressure. Under the background of increasing external pressure, it is suggested to pay attention to the improvement of industry structure from bottom to top, the subdivided varieties with strong executive power and continuous improvement of leading share, such as waterproof industry.
The general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy will be implemented soon. It is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities such as energy-saving glass, doors and windows, thermal insulation materials and BIPV. From April 2022, the general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization has been officially implemented. The code makes mandatory requirements for carbon emission and energy consumption of new buildings. We believe that building energy conservation can be optimized in three directions: envelope structure, renewable energy and efficiency improvement of energy consumption system. Among them, the upgrading of enclosure structure will stimulate the demand for energy-saving glass, doors and windows and thermal insulation materials, and the utilization of renewable energy will accelerate the popularization of BIPV. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading investment opportunities in sub sectors related to building energy conservation under the promotion of policies.
This week’s market review: this week (2022 / 03 / 142022 / 03 / 18), the building materials sector (CITIC) index increased by – 0.3%, which was 0.6% relative to the excess return of CSI 300. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is – 12.8%, compared with 0.8% of the excess yield of CSI 300. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was – 0.7%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was – 0.4%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was – 15.3% / 10.3%.
Overview of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 112.43 yuan / weight box, down 4.9% month on month and 1.9% year-on-year. The inventory was 53.72 million weight boxes, up 5.9% month on month and 86.3% year-on-year. We believe that the scale of cold repair in the industry is expected to increase in 2022, and the completion of real estate will still maintain a small growth, but we should pay attention to the growth of actual orders of processing plants in the short term. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn was 6275 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 10040 yuan / ton, down 6.9% month on month; The average transaction price of the national cement market this week was 516 yuan / ton, up 0.2% month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. This week, the cement delivery rate increased by 5.6pct to 60.4% month on month; The storage capacity ratio was 58.2%, with a month on month decrease of 2.1pct. The data related to cement shipments improved significantly month on month, and the steady growth of infrastructure may provide a solid support for cement demand and price.
Investment proposal and investment object
Key recommendation Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ( Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , buy); Under the situation of infrastructure recovery, early cycle products are recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ( Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , buy). It is suggested to pay attention to the cement faucet Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , not rated), Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ( Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , not rated), and Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ( Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , not rated). Preferred combination of Oriental building materials next week: Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552)
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
