Core view:
Global offshore wind power continues to maintain rapid growth. Over the past decade, the global offshore wind power kwh cost has decreased by 50%, and the full life cycle kwh cost of offshore wind power has decreased from US $0.162/kwh in 2010 to US $0.084/kwh in 2020. 2. The competitiveness of offshore wind power market is gradually enhanced. According to the 2021 report of the International Wind Energy Association, the annual new installed capacity of global offshore wind power in 2025 and 2030 will be about 20 million KW and 40 million KW respectively, and the compound annual growth rate of new installed capacity from 2021 to 2025 and 2026 to 2030 will be about 30% and 12.7% respectively.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, China’s offshore wind power gradually entered a period of rapid development. China’s offshore wind power has great potential, with a exploitable capacity of 3 billion kw; Coastal provinces attach great importance to the development of offshore wind power. According to the relevant plans of relevant local governments, the installed capacity of offshore wind power in the 14th five year plan is more than 44 million KW, with an average annual increase of more than 10 million KW. Offshore wind power will rush to install in 2021 and the central subsidy will be cancelled in 2022. Offshore wind power will enter a period of steady and rapid growth.
Main development trends of offshore wind power in the 14th five year plan: 1) trend 1: large-scale unit capacity; 2) Trend 2: the proportion of semi direct drive and direct drive is increasing; 3) Trend 3: site selection is far-reaching and Haihua; 4) Trend 4: the price of main equipment continues to decline; 5) Trend 5: consumption depends more on soft and direct delivery; 6) Trend 6: integrated development of marine resources.
Sort out the offshore wind power industry chain. 1) In terms of upstream materials, the localization rate of carbon fiber has been further improved, and the application demand of carbon fiber materials has been promoted by large-scale and lightweight; 2) The manufacturing of parts and complete machines benefited from the growth of demand and domestic substitution. Among them, in terms of bearings, the localization rate of spindle bearings has been further improved; In terms of wind turbines, semi direct drive is expected to become the mainstream; 3) Power transmission. The barrier of submarine cable link is high and the pattern is stable, and the leading enterprises are expected to maintain or even expand their competitive advantage; In terms of DC transmission equipment, flexible DC transmission equipment is becoming more and more competitive.
Risk factors
The demand growth rate does not meet expectations, the risk of policy changes, and the deterioration of the competition pattern of the industrial chain
