Matters:
The State Post Office released the latest February data of the express industry. Due to the wrong Spring Festival, we focus on the cumulative data from January to February. From January to February, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 15.69 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; Business income reached 65.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%.
Listed companies released operating data for February. As the Spring Festival is out of date, we focus on the cumulative data from January to February. From January to February, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) express logistics business volume increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the unit price increased by 2.2% year-on-year Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) business volume increased by 31% year on year, and unit price increased by 13.1% year on year Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) business volume increased by 28% year-on-year and unit price increased by 10.4% year-on-year Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) business volume increased by 39% year-on-year and unit price increased by 0.5% year-on-year.
Guoxin transportation’s view: 1) benefiting from the recovery of short-term consumption, the growth rate of physical online retail sales from January to February rebounded to 12.3% (the growth rate was only 1.7% in December last year), and the business volume growth of express industry from January to February also rebounded to 19.6% (the growth rate was only 10.7% in December last year). 2) The express supervision department began to control the disorderly competition in Yiwu in the second quarter of last year. Up to now, the policy control is still continuous and there is no signal of relaxation. The first meeting of the leading group for the safety management of delivery channels held in Beijing on February 24 made it clear that: strengthen the order politics of the express market, focus on the management of vicious low-price competition and empty package billing, and take a clear stand against “insider trading”; On March 1, the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express delivery industry came into force, which clearly stipulates that express delivery enterprises shall not provide express services at a price lower than the cost without justified reasons. In the context of policy control and express peak season, the price war in the express industry has been easing recently. From January to February, the single ticket price of the industry decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline remained relatively low. 3) SF took the initiative to shrink its business and control costs, which led to the decline of the overall business volume growth rate to 1.6% from January to February, and time express maintained a stable growth trend; Benefiting from the business volume spillover caused by the recovery of industry growth and the integration of Jitu Baishi, the business volume growth of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong from January to February was significantly higher than that of the industry, with 31%, 28% and 39% respectively. The single ticket prices of Yunda and Yuantong increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the changes in statistical caliber and product structure. From the perspective of Shentong single ticket prices (basically flat year-on-year), the leading price competition is still in a relaxed situation. In February, the industry CR8 index rose to 85.3, an increase of 3.4 percentage points month on month; Among them, the market share of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong has increased year-on-year. 4) Investment suggestion: we believe that due to the slowdown of e-commerce demand growth and the high base of express delivery volume, the growth of express delivery industry will slow down significantly in 2022. Under the background of easing the price war in 2022, the single ticket profit is expected to rebound significantly, and the profit of Tongda company is expected to achieve rapid growth. For SF, the growth of time effective express delivery in 2022 is expected to pick up, the product structure is expected to continue to be optimized, the asset utilization rate is expected to continue to improve, and the performance in 22 years will be significantly improved year-on-year. Continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Zhongtong express.
Comments:
Industry business volume: from January to February, the growth rate of industry business volume was 19.6%, and the demand growth picked up
Continuing the boom trend of e-commerce express under the background of the epidemic in 2020, the growth of the express industry was still bright in the first half of 2021, but in the second half of 2021, with the weak consumption of e-commerce, the growth rate of the express industry also began to decline gradually. Finally, the business volume of the express industry increased by 30% in 2021, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter has dropped to 15.8%. Benefiting from the recovery of short-term consumption, the growth rate of physical online retail sales from January to February rebounded to 12.3% (the growth rate was only 1.7% in December last year), and the business volume growth of express industry also rebounded to 19.6% (the growth rate was only 10.7% in December last year)
Industry price: after the express peak season, the price is still strong and the competition pattern is optimized
The express supervision department began to control the disorderly competition in Yiwu in the second quarter of last year. Up to now, the policy control is still continuous and there is no signal of relaxation. The first meeting of the leading group for the safety management of mail and delivery channels held in Beijing on February 24 made it clear that: strengthen the order politics of the express market, focus on the management of vicious low-price competition and empty package brushing, and take a clear stand against “inside roll”; On March 1, the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express delivery industry came into force, which clearly stipulates that express delivery enterprises shall not provide express services at a price lower than the cost without justified reasons. In the context of policy control and express peak season, the price war in the express industry has been easing recently. From January to February, the single ticket price of the industry decreased by 12.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline remained relatively low. Yunda and Yuantong single ticket prices increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to changes in statistical caliber and product structure. From the perspective of Shentong single ticket prices (basically flat year-on-year), the leading price competition is still in a relaxed situation.
In February, the industry CR8 index rose to 85.3, an increase of 3.4 percentage points month on month; Among them, the market share of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong has increased year-on-year
Comments on the operating data of express companies in February
(1) S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) : from January to February, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) express logistics business volume increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and unit price increased by 2.2% year-on-year. SF took the initiative to shrink its business and control costs, which led to the decline of the overall business volume growth rate to 1.6% from January to February, and time express maintained a stable growth trend.
(2) Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : from January to February, the business volume increased by 31% year-on-year, and the single ticket price increased by 13.1% year-on-year. Benefiting from the business volume spillover caused by the recovery of industry growth and the integration of Jitu Baishi, the business volume growth of the company is significantly higher than that of the industry. From January to February, the single ticket price changed greatly, mainly due to the adjustment of settlement caliber. Since the end of 2021, the settlement mode of rookie wrapping business in the company’s express business has been adjusted from the settlement between the original Hangzhou rookie Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. and franchisees to direct settlement with the company.
(3) Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : from January to February, the business volume increased by 28% year-on-year, and the single ticket price increased by 10.4% year-on-year. Benefiting from the business volume spillover caused by the recovery of industry growth and the integration of Jitu Baishi, the business volume growth of the company is significantly higher than that of the industry. Single ticket prices have increased significantly year-on-year. We estimate that it is mainly due to changes in statistical caliber and product structure.
(4) Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) : from January to February, the business volume increased by 39% year-on-year, and the single ticket price increased by 0.5% year-on-year. Benefiting from the business volume spillover caused by the recovery of industry growth and the integration of Jitu Baishi, the business volume growth of the company is significantly higher than that of the industry. The industry competition eased and the company’s single ticket price was strong.
Investment suggestions:
We believe that due to the slowdown of e-commerce demand growth and the high base of express delivery volume, the growth of express delivery industry will slow down significantly in 2022. Under the background of easing the price war in 2022, the single ticket profit is expected to rebound significantly, and the profit of Tongda company is expected to achieve rapid growth. For SF, the growth of time effective express delivery in 2022 is expected to pick up, the product structure is expected to continue to be optimized, the asset utilization rate is expected to continue to improve, and the performance in 22 years will be significantly improved year-on-year. Continue to recommend Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Zhongtong express.
Risk tips:
Macro factors such as the epidemic have a negative impact on production and operation, the demand of e-commerce is lower than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
