Industry core view:
Last week (March 14, 2022 – March 20, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.77%, the Shenwan food and beverage index fell 3.63%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.86 percentage points, ranking 27th among the 31 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan. Last week, the food and beverage sector fell sharply. Except for health products (+ 3.75%), all other sub sectors fell. Luzhou Baijiu Development Promotion Bureau released the first half of March 2022 Chinese Baijiu wholesale price trend, the national liquor chain price index fell 0.08%. Recently, a number of Baijiu enterprises announced their 2021 performance and business data at the beginning of this year: Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) disclosed the main business data from 1 to February this year, and realized total business revenue increased by 10% year-on-year. Willing to increase revenue by 83.8% year-on-year in 2021 and 80% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, the company successfully achieved a “good start” Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) in 2021, the revenue increased by 25.37% year on year. In the long run, Baijiu consumption is sticky, consumer demand is stable, and the potential energy for inflation remains, and the fundamentals remain good. Suggestions: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu (Baijiu): Liquor: high-end liquor has a higher growth certainty, and the growth of the high-end liquor is still enough. It is recommended to focus on the high-end and secondary liquor allocation opportunities; 1. 2) Beer: the process of high-end beer is accelerated, the performance of industry leaders is bright, and the long-term good trend is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to high-end beer leaders; 3) Popular food: the demand for popular food is rigid, and the cost drives the price increase logic of the popular food industry, which is expected to be continuously verified. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of popular food such as condiments and leisure snacks.
Key investment points:
Baijiu weekly: last week, the Baijiu sector fell 4.02%, of which Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) (-11.58%), Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (-11.77%) and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) (-20.37%) fell by three. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) decreased by 3.46%, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) decreased by 2.25% Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : last week, the wholesale price of Maotai remained unchanged. For 20 years, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai remained at 3190 yuan / bottle, and the price of Feitian bulk bottle remained at 2850 yuan / bottle. Maotai Group distributes the seed industry of brewing raw materials. The establishment of Maotai gaoyinghong Liquor Group Co., Ltd. on March 19 marks the comprehensive development of Maotai’s seed industry, the formal development of Maotai gaoyinghong group’s seed industry, the establishment of Maotai gaoyinghong Technology Co., Ltd., and the establishment of Maotai gaoyinghong Technology Co., Ltd. in the street to further promote the comprehensive development of Maotai’s seed industry Another big step has been taken in boosting rural revitalization. On the same day, Maotai Group signed strategic cooperation agreements on scientific and technological innovation with the Provincial Department of science and technology, the Institute of Microbiology, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences. Maotai Group will carry out in-depth scientific research cooperation with various strategic cooperation units in the fields of scientific and technological innovation, brewing microorganism research, water environment microorganism research and Chishui River ecological environment protection, so as to promote Maotai to continuously improve the level of scientific and technological innovation Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) : the net profit in the first two months increased by 680% in advance. On March 14, Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) disclosed the main operating data from January to February 2022, realizing a total operating revenue of about 708 million yuan, an increase of about 10% year-on-year; The net profit was about 220 million yuan, an increase of about 680% year-on-year; The non net profit deducted was about 40 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 23%. As for performance growth, Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) said that it was mainly because the company received compensation for land collection and storage in January 2022, and the company included the relevant income of the above land compensation into non recurring profits and losses, resulting in an increase in non recurring profits and losses from January to February 2022 compared with January to February 2021. The company received land compensation of 274 million yuan, with a total profit of about 207 million yuan Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : the revenue is expected to increase by 80% in the first quarter. On March 15, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) announced that the net profit in the first quarter of 2022 is expected to be 460 million yuan – 560 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52% – 85%; It is estimated that the operating revenue in the first quarter of 2022 will increase by about 80% over the same period of the previous year. In 2022, the company continued to promote the strategy of old wine, further recognized the quality of old wine, actively arranged the peak season of Spring Festival, and successfully achieved a “good start”. Shede’s revenue in 2021 was 4.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.8%. On March 17, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) released the annual report for 2021. During the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 4.969 billion yuan, an increase of 83.80% year-on-year; The net profit was 1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.35%; Among them, the liquor business achieved a revenue of 4.577 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.77%. The announcement shows that during the period, the revenue of medium and high-grade liquor reached 3.874 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.94%; Low grade liquor achieved a revenue of 703 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 218.66%. The output of alcohol was 42700 kiloliters and the sales volume was 39100 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 136.8% and 149.67% respectively; The output of shede series was 10500 kiloliters and the sales volume was 8100 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 74.09% and 60.08% respectively; Tuopai series had 32300 kiloliters and sales volume of 31100 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 168.08% and 192.02% respectively Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) : it is planned to invest more than 9 billion yuan to expand production. On the afternoon of March 16, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) group announced that the company plans to invest 9101815000 yuan to build and implement the expansion project of original liquor production and storage of Fenjiu 2030 technical transformation (phase I). The project covers an area of 1932 Mu and the construction period is planned to be three years. After the completion of the project, the company is expected to increase the annual output of original wine by 51000 tons and the energy storage of original wine by 134400 tons. According to the report, after the project is put into operation, under the normal operation of the company, the sales revenue in the year when the production capacity is expected to reach 811769 million yuan, the total annual profit is 2857783 million yuan, and the annual investment profit rate is 20.4% Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) : 800 million yuan new project started in Yanghe new area. From January to February, Yanghe new area passed the major project office of the municipal development and Reform Commission to identify two new projects, with a total planned investment of 800 million yuan and an average monomer scale of 400 million yuan, namely Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) No. 9 courtyard wine culture exhibition area (500 million yuan) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) 6 cross brewing workshop (300 million yuan); Through the identification of 1 new projects, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) Baijiu intelligent brewing project (150 million yuan).
Other sectors of food and beverage:
Beer: snowflake beer: the output of snowflake beer Wuhan company exceeded 500000 kiloliters in 2021, an increase of 18.4%. On March 15, according to Hubei Daily, in 2021, the production volume of China Resources snowflake beer (Wuhan) Co., Ltd. exceeded 500000 kiloliters for the first time, an increase of 18.4% year-on-year compared with 2020, the company’s tax revenue increased by 54.49% year-on-year, and the unit efficiency increased significantly. Through the high-end development of variety structure, the company made the ratio of high-grade wine reach 45.8%, up 12% year-on-year. China Resources snowflake’s high-end products, including Li Guowei, Heineken Amstel, lavebon black beer, high-grade fruit beer and mini vials, have been successfully listed in Wuhan factory.
Snack food: Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) : the controlling shareholder intends to increase the company’s shares by 30 million yuan to 60 million yuan Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) announced that Huatai Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, increased its holdings of 323300 shares of the company on March 15, accounting for 0.06% of the total share capital of the company, with an increase of 149967 million yuan. Within six months from March 15, the first increase date, Huatai Group plans to continue to increase its shares in the company, with an increase amount of no less than 30 million yuan and no more than 60 million yuan (including 149967 million yuan).
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 Risk of economic growth falling short of expectations
