What are the new trends in the promotional activities of home furnishing companies during the period of 1.315?
Channel side: the head company’s activities start earlier, the resources are invested more fully, and the omni-channel publicity and drainage ability is stronger. In the context of traffic fragmentation and the decline of natural passenger flow in home stores, leading enterprises put more resources in multiple channels. In the warm-up stage of 315 promotion, the head enterprises use live broadcast, short video and other means to accumulate traffic in advance.
Product side: the trend of multi category and integrated competition is becoming stronger, and the advantages of supply chain and large-scale centralized purchase of head enterprises are gradually highlighted. The industry moves from single product competition to multi category and integrated competition, and the division between customization and software is gradually broken. During the 315 period, the packages launched by the head enterprises basically include customization, software, household appliances and other diversified categories.
On the one hand, the launch of the whole package meets the needs of consumers for one-stop shopping, and on the other hand, it helps to improve the customer unit value. At a time when the channel is fragmented, the customer group is diverted and it is more and more difficult to obtain customers, improving the customer unit value and then promoting the floor efficiency of stores is an important way to improve the profitability of dealers and promote the expansion of the income scale of household companies. Under the trend of integrated packaging, the strong combination between customized / software home furnishing brands and Home Furnishing / home appliance brands not only reflects the advantages of large-scale centralized purchase of head enterprises and the integration ability of supply chain, but also forms a dimensionality reduction blow to local brands that do not have the ability of resource integration, and the advantages of leading enterprises will be further expanded. Continue to be optimistic about the leading home furnishing enterprises dominated by “domestic demand + 2C”, and recommend that retail and large home furnishing channels account for a high proportion, with strong 315 activities [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ].
\u3000\u30002. What adjustments have been made to the international & management measures for e-cigarettes?
On March 11, the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration issued the national standard for electronic cigarette (second exposure draft), which will be publicized until March 17, 2022; Meanwhile, the measures for the administration of electronic cigarettes will be issued, and the new regulations will come into force on May 1. In general, this document has the following changes:
1) it is forbidden to present other flavors except tobacco, which exceeds the market expectation, but cocoa extract, lemon oil, peppermint oil, etc. are still listed, and there is still a certain space for blending in taste; 2) Raise the marketing threshold of e-cigarette products and strengthen continuous supervision; 3) Reduce the supervision of electronic cigarette products only used for export and benefit the overseas export of electronic cigarettes; 4) The power of the Department of tobacco monopoly administration has been expanded: for example, the Department of tobacco monopoly administration or the Department of tobacco monopoly administration in conjunction with relevant departments may inspect and deal with the illegal transportation of electronic cigarette products, aerosols and nicotine for electronic cigarettes according to law; The competent administrative department of tobacco monopoly may suspend the trading qualification of the platform; 5) Heating cigarettes shall be included in cigarette management; 6) The atomization shall contain nicotine; 7) Specialty stores turn to collection stores;
\u3000\u30003. What is the impact of the new national standard & Management Measures on the e-cigarette industry?
At present, the upstream of the atomized e-cigarette industry chain is raw material suppliers, the midstream participants include equipment manufacturers and brands, and the downstream subjects are distributors and e-cigarette users. The formal introduction of the e-cigarette management measures will significantly improve the access threshold, and the benefit distribution pattern of the e-cigarette industry chain will be reconstructed.
Conclusion: the company has the ability to replace the traditional cigarette or electronic products in the future. 1) it is expected to return to the original market share by developing more cigarette smoking technology; Conclusion 2: in the short term, the sales volume of e-cigarettes will be constrained by the taste, which will be reduced in stages, and there is still some room for deployment in the taste. In the long run, with the full restoration of e-cigarette and tobacco taste, the scale of China’s e-cigarette market still has great room for growth. In 2020, the FDA issued a taste ban. The retail scale of the U.S. e-cigarette market decreased from $9.644 billion in 2019 to $9.378 billion in 2020, and is expected to rise to $10.299 billion in 2021. In addition, compared with key countries in the world, the penetration rate of China’s e-cigarette in 2021 was only 1.5%, while that of the United States, Japan, Britain and France were 38.0%, 30.3%, 20.9% and 4.1% respectively, The penetration rate of e-cigarettes in China is expected to further increase. 2) Channel side: wholesale link or return to China tobacco system, and brand stores may be replaced by collection stores, convenience stores and traditional cigarette outlets. 3) Export side: conclusion 3: the official version of the management measures is more flexible in export supervision, which is conducive to the export of Chinese made brands. According to blue hole and China e-cigarette Industry Association, more than 90% of the world’s e-cigarettes are produced in Shenzhen. It is estimated that China’s e-cigarette export volume will be 63.1 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 28%. China is in a leading position in the global competition and has become the world’s largest e-cigarette producer and exporter, The national policy recognizes the role of “export earning foreign exchange” of e-cigarette industry. 4) Marketing side: emphasize the protection of minors and strengthen the management of advertising.
Overall, we believe that the release of the national standard for e-cigarettes (second draft for comments) and the measures for the administration of e-cigarettes will promote the orderly development of the e-cigarette industry, gradually clarify the competition pattern of manufacturers and brands, and benefit enterprises with high production standards, high-tech reserves and high capital reserves.
\u3000\u30004. Recent price increase of cultural paper?
Since this year, affected by high energy prices, poor logistics system, overseas strikes and other factors, the price of wood pulp has fluctuated and increased, driving the price of paper products up. In January 2022, leading enterprises of cultural paper intensively issued price increase letters, and the price increase period will cover March; In 2022, the price of pulp and paper increased intensively by about 300 yuan / ton again. This round of price increase not only has the driving force of rising due to the continuous shortage of raw materials, but also has the support of the small peak season of cultural paper demand.
Risk warning: real estate sales and completion are not as expected; Upward risk of raw material price; Industry competition intensifies.
