Industry core view:
2022.3.142022.3.18: the decline of the new power industry this week was – 0.15%, and the decline of the CSI 300 in the same period was – 0.94%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.79pct. It ranks fifth among the 31 industry sectors of Shenwan.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: this week, new energy vehicles ushered in a wave of price increases, and many auto enterprises announced price increases. In the past 10 days, Tesla has announced three increases in product prices, with the highest increase of 30000 yuan for some models; On the evening of March 15, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced an increase of 3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 0 yuan in the official guidance price of some models; On March 17, Nezha automobile announced the price adjustment of models, and the prices of some models will be increased by Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan; On March 18, Xiaopeng automobile announced the model price adjustment, and the price of its products before subsidies will be increased by 10100 yuan – 20000 yuan; On March 19, Weima automobile announced that the price of its products would be increased by 70 Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) 0 yuan. The main reasons for the price increase of automobile enterprises are the decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices. We believe that the price increase of whole vehicles can effectively cover the cost of supply side; At the same time, the delivery cycle of electric vehicles continues to grow, up to half a year, and even the phenomenon of “reselling orders” has been derived, reflecting the high bearing of the demand end. Under the tight balance between supply and demand, we are optimistic that the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries equipped with low-end models will further increase in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant cathode targets.
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, according to the statistics of Polaris Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic network, since 2021, China’s battery module enterprises have signed more than 1.4 million tons of silicon material, of which GCL ranks first with 768000 tons, new special energy has signed 404000 tons, Daquan has signed 210900 tons, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) has signed 50000 tons, and Asia’s silicon industry has 25200 tons. Silicon material is the bottleneck link at the supply end of the photovoltaic industry chain, and the signing of silicon material long order by component manufacturers is conducive to ensuring the supply. We expect a high increase in photovoltaic installation in 2022. We suggest paying attention to Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ( Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ) and Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind turbines continued to be low this week. The procurement of 768mw wind turbines for 8 wind power projects of cecep was opened, and a total of 6-8 complete machine manufacturers competed. Among them, Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) quoted the lowest price for 4 times, Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) quoted twice, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) quoted twice. Among the 8 projects, the lowest price is 1700 yuan / kW of Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) . The cost reduction rate of wind power is higher than expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the wind power equipment sector.
Hydrogen energy: on March 18, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the key points of automobile standardization in 2022, proposing that in the field of new energy vehicles, it will speed up the revision of post collision safety requirements standards for fuel cell electric vehicles and further strengthen vehicle safety guarantee; Comprehensively promote the research on vehicle standards such as energy consumption and driving range, low-temperature starting performance and dynamic performance test methods of fuel cell electric vehicles, as well as the standards of key system components such as fuel cell engine performance test methods and on-board hydrogen system technical conditions, so as to support the R & D, application and demonstration operation of key technologies of fuel cell electric vehicles. The policy is favorable. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets of the fuel cell industry and traditional energy enterprises with hydrogen energy layout, such as Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ( Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; The investment in power grid is less than expected.
