Industry perspective
Nucleic acid vaccine has multiple advantages such as high efficiency and flexibility, and the mRNA pathway has developed rapidly in recent years. MRNA technology platform has its unique advantages. It is one of the most efficient rapid response technology platforms for vaccine development at present, and it is also one of the main directions of vaccine research and development in the future. The new mRNA vaccine can be designed, synthesized and prepared rapidly. It has multiple advantages such as high efficiency and flexibility. It can play an important role in the field of infectious disease vaccine and tumor vaccine. Sequence design and delivery system are the main barriers in the development stage of mRNA vaccine. Sequence design can further optimize the translation efficiency of mRNA vaccine by modifying, reconstructing or optimizing the mRNA sequence encoding target antigen; Effective delivery system can assist mRNA vaccine to cross cell membrane and play a role. Lipid nanoparticles are the mainstream delivery system at present, which has the characteristics of high delivery efficiency and easy amplification production.
The mRNA market has a promising prospect, with the layout of bigpharma and the emergence of biotech. The global covid-19 outbreak has brought development opportunities for the development and industrialization of nucleic acid vaccine, and the industry has entered a comprehensive acceleration period. Nature predicts that the mRNA product market still depends on the sales of covid-19 vaccine in the short term. In 2021, Pfizer and Moderna covid-19 vaccine, the world's major mRNA vaccine companies, will achieve a total revenue of 54.5 billion US dollars; In the medium and long term, with the entry of other preventive and therapeutic vaccines, the mRNA vaccine market is expected to reach US $23 billion from 2028 to 2035. Among them, preventive vaccines are still expected to become the cornerstone, and the revenue will exceed 50% by 2035. At present, leading vaccine companies at home and abroad have increased the in-depth layout of the nucleic acid vaccine industry. At the same time, nucleic acid vaccine biotech has also received great capital assistance and driven into the fast lane of development.
Covid-19 vaccine is the application field of mRNA technology approved by FDA for the first time. In the epidemic situation, compared with the traditional technical path, the basic immune clinical data of mRNA covid-19 vaccine against the original strain have achieved good performance. The effective rate of Pfizer / biontech mRNA covid-19 vaccine against the original covid-19 strain has reached 95%, and the effective rate of Moderna is 94.5%. At present, Pfizer and Moderna mRNA covid-19 vaccines have also been fully approved by FDA. In addition, the rapid antigen design and flexible production and preparation process give the rapid development speed of mRNA vaccine against mutant strains.
MRNA has a wide range of applications in conventional vaccine varieties, and multi-point flowering is currently developed. On the whole, the research and development of mRNA technology path in conventional vaccine varieties is still in the early stage of clinical practice. Infectious disease vaccine is the most advanced mRNA technology application at present. Some of the traditional heavy-duty vaccines under development include mRNA influenza vaccine (Moderna is in clinical phase II), herpes zoster mRNA vaccine (preclinical), rabies mRNA vaccine (curevac is in clinical phase I), RSV vaccine (Moderna starts clinical phase III) and HIV mRNA vaccine (Moderna is in clinical phase I). In the field of therapeutic vaccines, mRNA technology is also accelerating the development of new personalized tumor vaccines.
Investment advice
Industry strategy: we are optimistic about the flexible advantages and broad application prospects of nucleic acid vaccine, especially mRNA vaccine technology path. MRNA vaccine is not only the application of covid-19 virus, but also the milestone progress in the field of conventional infectious diseases and therapeutic tumor vaccines is expected to bring new catalysis, which deserves special attention.
Recommended portfolio: recommend big pharma and head biotech companies with the ability of forward-looking strategic planning and innovative technology, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) , Aibo Biology (unlisted), etc.
Risk tips
R & D fails or R & D progress does not meet expectations; Risk of adverse reactions; Covid-19 strain mutation risk; Intensified market competition; Independent and controllable risks of the supply chain.
