Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 3.19%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.42 percentage points. According to the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the total amount of social zero from January to February 2022 was + 6.7% compared with the same period in 2021. After deducting price factors, it was + 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. We believe that in the short term, the epidemic will counterattack and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “steady growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions and concerns: ① gold jewelry: the recent intensification of geopolitical friction promotes the continuous rise of gold price and stimulates the consumption of gold jewelry. In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises; ② Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance;
③ Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of relevant regulations on cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (March 14-march 20), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.77%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 3.19%, and the retail trade index lost 1.42 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 26th in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 10.68%, the commercial retail index has fallen by 13.88%, and the Shenwan commercial retail index has lost 3.2 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking the 21st among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: from January to February 2022, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.70% compared with the same period in 2021. After deducting price factors, it actually increased by 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics increased by + 19.50% and + 7.00% respectively year-on-year. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold fell $67.69 to $192090/oz, and silver fell 0.87 to $24.96/oz. ③ E-commerce data: in February 2022, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 17.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%, and the turnover of jewelry was 7.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47%. In terms of beauty makeup, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was good in February, and the performance of Chinese brands in love with fire and big water drops was strong; In terms of jewelry, Hong Kong brands performed well, domestic and foreign brands had ups and downs, and domestic brands designcircles and zhouliufu performed well.
Important announcements of listed companies: Lancy Co.Ltd(002612) quarterly report correction Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) provision for impairment and profit distribution Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) and Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.Ltd(603214) repurchase Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) and Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) issue performance reports.
Important events in the industry: ① when the State Food and drug administration carries out drug safety rectification actions, cosmetics and medical devices will become the focus of attention; ② The Ministry of Commerce said that consumption will continue to recover and develop.
