This week’s view: take a rational view of the short-term capital disturbance, the leading value is expected to return, and grasp the bottom opportunity. During the week, the overseas situation + epidemic continued to disturb market sentiment repeatedly. We believe that due to the favorable liquidity and other factors, the foreign ownership of the food and beverage sector itself is high, and the emotional disturbance is transmitted to the capital outflow, resulting in some pressure on the sector. Taking Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as examples, the shareholding ratio of Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect during the week was -0.25 / – 0.34 / – 0.18pct respectively. In October of the 18th year and March of the 20th year, the shares held by Shanghai Shenzhen Gangtong in Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) month were -0.62 / -0.45pct respectively, but the shares held in the next month were + 0.85 / + 0.33pct respectively, with obvious return performance. Therefore, we believe that under the current background of sound fundamentals, the follow-up capital flow is still expected to return to normal, and it is expected to improve month on month in the second and third quarters under steady growth. At present, we first promote the Baijiu sector, and the impact of the disturbance is relatively small in the off-season. We suggest that we should pay attention to the reform of the company and the channel. For the mass products sector, we suggest to continuously track the disturbance of the epidemic situation and wait for marginal improvement.
Baijiu: we think that in the continuous fluctuation adjustment, we still need to return to the fundamentals, including the competition pattern of the industry, the driving factors of the target performance, and the matching degree between the valuation level and the performance. The current Baijiu is relatively low in consumption, and the remarkable fundamentals of the Spring Festival have laid a solid foundation for the first quarter of the year. It is evident from the performance of the 1~2 / first quarter business. We believe that the current valuation of the sector is still cost-effective, and the mood has warmed up during the week. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the improvement of the subsequent demand side. At present, we are still the first to promote deterministic high-end wine, which is less affected by the demand side disturbance, and the valuation is also cost-effective; It is suggested to pay attention to the elastic sub high-end and local wine with strong demand.
Beer: the 22 year barley price lock of China Resources and heavy beer has been completed, and the green beer has been locked until the first half of the year. The biggest uncertainty in the cost comes from packaging materials, and the general inventory cycle is 1-2 quarters. We judge that there is no need to worry too much about the cost pressure. Assuming that the cost rises more than expected, it can be alleviated by controlling fees, raising prices again, structural upgrading and other means. The epidemic not only affects the demand, but also affects the subsequent potential price increase and high-end progress. The closer to the peak season, the market will inevitably become more and more worried. However, considering that the consumption from March to April is still weak (the single month sales volume of Tsingtao beer in March and April of 21 years is close to January), it is suggested to focus on the prevention and control progress of the follow-up epidemic.
Dairy products: Q1, a leading enterprise, has a promising start and bright business data. From a fundamental point of view, it is expected that the demand for dairy products will remain stable in 22 years, the main line of the two strong companies to improve the net interest rate will be gradually realized, and the valuation is cost-effective, which is recommended.
Food synthesis: after preliminary adjustment, the valuation of the internal sub bid of the sector has been cost-effective, including Jue Wei, an Jing, etc. The price increase of Anji is basically conducted smoothly. With the disappearance of the high base of Q1, Q2 is expected to usher in fundamental improvement. We believe that if the epidemic situation improves, the operation of Juewei offline stores is expected to be repaired, and there is great flexibility in profits this year, mainly from the reduction of equity incentive fees and subsidy fees. Secondly, it is suggested to pay attention to the distribution progress of Ganyuan’s new products. The company plans to hold two large-scale investment promotion in spring sugar and may respectively. At present, it is also cooperating with some new membership business super customers.
Condiments: we believe that the short-term epidemic affects demand, and the current cost pressure still exists. The prices of soybeans, molasses and energy have rebounded after easing slightly at the beginning of the year. In the medium and long term, the supply-demand relationship of raw materials such as soybeans has not changed substantially, and the price rebound in the short term is difficult to sustain. After the Spring Festival, with the gradual digestion of channel inventory, the terminal price increase of most companies in the industry will be fully implemented from April to may, and there is also expected to be a demand inflection point in the second quarter. We believe that condiment, as a necessity of life, has small elasticity at the C-end, and the fundamentals are still supported. It is suggested to weaken the short-term performance requirements and continuously track the transmission of cost pressure, inventory digestion and price increase.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / continuous and repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk.
