Market review and Industry Valuation
Pharmaceutical biology rose 1.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.02 percentage points and ranking third among the 31 Shenwan sub banks. The pharmaceutical sub sector was mixed, with vaccines rising the most, up 16.93%, and offline pharmacies falling the most, down 9.95%. As of March 18, 2022, the PE (TTM) of shenwanyi pharmaceutical industry was 31.01 times, and the latest premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 152%. The valuation of TCM R & D outsourcing in the sub sector is the highest, 66.14 times, and the valuation of medical consumables is the lowest, 11.32 times.
Industry highlights
The new version of covid-19 diagnosis and treatment plan is released
Traditional Chinese medicine updated gap
Five Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises are allowed to produce Pfizer covid-19 oral medicine free of charge
The lowest 7.9 yuan / person, COVID-19 antigen test kit results showed the progress of New Coronavirus pneumonia.
As of March 20, 2022, there were 132226 confirmed cases in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), 21388 confirmed cases, 4638 deaths and 16920 confirmed cases imported from abroad. The situation of epidemic prevention and control in Jilin and other parts of the country is grim. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, as of March 20, 2022, China had received 3.226 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine.
As of March 20, 2022, 470 million cases have been confirmed in the world. The country with the largest number of cases is the United States, with a total of 81.41 million cases, followed by India, with a total of 43.91 million cases. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, as of March 19, 2022, covid-19 vaccine had been vaccinated 10.973 billion doses worldwide, and the vaccination proportion (number of complete vaccinations / total population) was 56.63%.
Core view
The global epidemic has repeated twists and turns, remains high and has high uncertainty. “Drug + vaccine” is still an important measure for long-term anti epidemic in the future. In terms of covid-19 drugs, traditional Chinese medicine plays an important role in the prevention and control of covid-19 epidemic in China. Many traditional Chinese medicines have been selected into the latest version of diagnosis and treatment plan. It is suggested to pay attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) and other relevant beneficiary listed companies Five Chinese enterprises, including Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , and Kyushu pharmaceutical, have been approved to imitate Pfizer covid-19 oral medicine. It is suggested to pay attention to listed companies directly benefiting from it and listed companies related to the industrial chain, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . In terms of vaccines, covid-19 vaccine has promoted the performance of many enterprises, and the valuation has been in a reasonable range through the preliminary adjustment. China has begun to implement sequential immunization. It is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine development listed companies, such as Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , etc.
The overall valuation of the industry is at a historically low level and the industrial development trend is good. We maintain the optimistic view of the industry and suggest paying attention to the following directions: (1) China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) especially the rapid development of biopharmaceutical field, but there are still shortcomings in the upstream supply chains of basic links, high-end pharmaceutical equipment, life science reagents, consumables, instruments and equipment, and the main markets are occupied by foreign-funded enterprises, The “14th five year plan” for pharmaceutical industry development proposed for the first time that “comprehensively improve the modernization level of pharmaceutical industry chain, realize the stability and controllability of supply chain, and accelerate the innovation driven development transformation”. Driven by the continuous improvement of policy and technical level, China’s upstream high-tech industry chain will develop rapidly and accelerate domestic substitution. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant subdivided fields; (2) Driven by policies, talents, capital and other factors, domestic innovative drugs have developed rapidly, entered the harvest period of achievements, opened the road of internationalization and ushered in a new stage of upgrading. They have begun to gradually transform from me too / me worth to higher quality and more innovative me better and first in class. In the future, whether in the Chinese market or overseas market, they have strong R & D strength, rich pipelines and reasonable gradients, The advantages of domestic innovation leading enterprises with outstanding product differentiation advantages will be further highlighted, and it is suggested to pay attention to them; (3) Global and Chinese innovative drug R & D is booming, production capacity continues to transfer to China, and China’s CXO industry is developing rapidly. It is expected that with the promotion of policies, the continuous improvement of technical level and relevant demand, the industry concentration is expected to further improve, and the head effect is becoming more and more obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders and sub leaders, such as Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) etc.
Risk tips
Industry policy risk, drug safety risk, R & D risk and market competition risk.
