Core view
The high-level statement releases positive signals and the policy window period is coming. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
The heat differentiation of cities in the first round of centralized land supply is obvious. The first round of centralized land supply in Hefei shows obvious signs of recovery. Enterprises have a high enthusiasm for participating in high-quality plots. All 17 homesteads were sold at a premium, of which 15 reached the suspension price and entered the stage of bidding for high-quality schemes. In the first round of centralized land supply in Qingdao, 15 plots were sold, 3 were traded at a premium and 12 at a reserve price. The overall popularity was relatively stable. In the first round of transfer of 15 residential land in Fuzhou, there were 10 transactions, 2 flow auctions and 3 cancellation of transfer, including 4 premium transfer. The main force of land acquisition is still dominated by central state-owned enterprises, and the land market is relatively cold.
Sufficient policy space, the real estate sector ushered in deterministic opportunities. At present, it is still in the stage of strict historical regulation, with large room for the release of policy tools, the reduction of credit interest rate and the further easing of administrative policies. The subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. At the same time, the senior management clearly proposed the transformation to the new development mode. We believe that the real estate industry is changing from incremental development to stock holding operation and service mode. Continue to be optimistic about the trend market of real estate and property sector, and continue to recommend development categories: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China overseas development; Property management: Country Garden service, poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service, xinchengyue service.
