This week, the construction sector fell better than the market, and the construction segment rose and fell in half. For the safety of over aged construction workers, many regions issued documents to further standardize the employment age management of construction enterprises.
The overall decline of construction outperformed the market, and the sub sectors were mixed: this week, the Shenwan construction index closed at 2187.0 points, down 1.3% from last week, outperforming the market. The industry’s average price to book ratio was 0.9 times, slightly lower than that of last week. Subdivided sectors were mixed, with the decoration sector rising by 2.6%, with the largest increase; Industrial construction fell 3.1%, the largest decline.
Pay attention to the issuance of documents in many regions to further standardize the employment age management of construction enterprises: Recently, several regions across the country issued documents to further standardize the employment age management of construction enterprises. The Shanghai Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of human resources and social security and the Shanghai Federation of trade unions jointly issued a document clearly prohibiting three categories of personnel under the age of 18, men over the age of 60 and women over the age of 50 from entering the construction site to engage in construction operations. From 2008 to 2020, the aging trend of migrant workers in the construction industry has gradually strengthened, the supply of migrant workers aged 16-30 has declined year by year, and the number of migrant workers aged over 31 has been rising. In 2020, the proportion of migrant workers aged over 50 has exceeded 25%. Moreover, the working environment of the construction industry is poor, the work intensity and risk degree are high, and the wages of construction workers are generally higher than those of other types of work. The relatively poor working environment is also very unfavorable to the health of over age construction workers, resulting in the construction site becoming a high incidence area of over age migrant workers’ safety accidents. Therefore, the construction industry return orders issued by many places mainly take into account the safety of employment. We believe that the release of the construction industry retirement order may further promote the development of construction industrialization, especially the development of prefabricated buildings. The gradual improvement of the degree of construction industrialization is also expected to attract more school-age labor force.
Infrastructure investment continued to grow, and real estate investment picked up slightly: from January to February, fixed asset investment was 5.4 trillion, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year. Among them, the completed investment in infrastructure and real estate development was 1.3 trillion and 1.4 trillion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.6% and 3.7% respectively. Infrastructure investment continued the growth trend in December, and the year-on-year growth rate was significantly improved; After four consecutive months of decline, real estate investment also ushered in signs of recovery. In infrastructure construction, the investment in power, transportation and public utilities was 0.21 trillion yuan, 0.48 trillion yuan and 0.57 trillion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.7%, 10.5% and 6.0% respectively. From January to February, the investment performance of the three sub projects was good, with a large year-on-year increase in power and transportation. The investment in public water conservancy also ended its continuous decline and ushered in growth. The main tone of steady growth in 2022 is expected to drive the continuous improvement of infrastructure investment.
Construction and completion fell year-on-year, and the decline of land transaction price was higher than that of transaction area: from January to February, the planned land transaction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities totaled 150 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 26.7%; The average transaction floor price is 1386 yuan / square meter, with a decrease of 1273.5 yuan / square meter. The decline of transaction price is higher than that of transaction area. The construction, completion and sales areas were 150, 120 and 160 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 12.1%, – 9.8% and – 9.6% respectively. The year-on-year growth rate of new construction from January to February narrowed by 19.0 PCT compared with December 2021, mainly because most projects started construction at the beginning of the year; The completion growth rate dropped significantly compared with December, mainly because the beginning of the year was not the peak of completion, and real estate enterprises used limited funds for new projects. From January to February, the decline of commercial housing sales area narrowed, but the sales unit price decreased significantly, indicating that the current real estate sales situation is still poor, and the real estate easing policy needs to be further strengthened.
Key recommendation
Key recommendation: infrastructure sector, Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949)
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: manufacturing investment slows down, assembly promotion is less than expected, and macro liquidity is tightened.
