\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 572 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) )
Key investment points
Why are we optimistic about the valuation repair of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ? As the first tier enterprise in the customization industry, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) is at the leading level in terms of brand influence, revenue scale, number of stores, single store delivery volume and other dimensions. We believe that in 2022, driven by management optimization and the whole strategy, the company will regain the driving force of growth, and the performance growth will accelerate significantly in the next three years. While the PE valuation is one standard deviation below the average value of the past three years, the company is expected to usher in value discovery.
Learn from history: what caused the decline in growth rate in the previous stage? 1) Since 2016, the flow dividend has subsided and the customized enterprises have been listed intensively. The Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) moderate management model is difficult to adapt to the intensified industry competition. 2) Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) wardrobe stores in 2018, the number of stores has reached 2510, touching the single category ceiling (we judge it to be about 25 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) ), and the expansion space is limited. 3) The growth drivers provided by cabinets and bulk channels are limited. Affected by the objective factors such as the development stage of the cabinet category itself, high technical difficulty, flow ahead of the wardrobe, and the factors that require time to cultivate Simi brand awareness, the business development progress of the company's cabinet in the early stage is slower than that of the cabinet department company in the industry; At the same time, as the matching rate of wardrobe is lower than that of cabinet, the growth rate of bulk business of the company from 2016 to 2020 also lags behind that of cabinet companies.
Change 1: the management is improved and the internal strength is enhanced, and the channel quality is expected to continue to improve. Affected by the pressure of real estate, the proportion of bulk business tends to stabilize, and the growth importance of retail channels is highlighted again. With the continuous encryption of the layout of head brand stores, the fineness of channel management will become an important driving force for the growth of the customization industry in the next stage Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) from 2018, the original overly moderate management mode has been changed, the assessment and elimination of dealers have been strengthened, and the system has been given stronger competitive vitality. Before 2021, Yang Xin, head of europay wardrobe business department, joined Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) and further refined and combed the dealers and internal management of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) to enhance the dealers' active marketing and service ability.
Change 2: the whole family strategy and the whole decoration channel promote each other, and the customer unit price can be improved. The company puts forward the "C6 plan", which aims at a customer unit price of 60000 yuan. We believe that the key to improving the customer unit price lies in stronger Category integration and higher connection rate. The whole customized product strategy + the channel strategy of force and packaging will be an important booster for the improvement of the customer unit price, and it is also a customer acquisition mode in line with the changing trend of consumer demand.
Change 3: Simi cabinet and Milana are on track. Although the cultivation period of simi cabinet is longer than the company's expectation, it has been on track by 2021, and there is great room for improvement in the number of stores, delivery volume of single store and profitability. Milanna, as a brand positioning in the mass market, has officially attracted investment since 2021, with a smooth and rapid start, clear positioning and brand gradient, providing additional impetus for subsequent growth.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company's overall strategic customer unit price is expected to increase significantly. Maintaining the previous profit forecast, we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 130 million yuan, 1.49 billion yuan and 1.75 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to pe12 and 9x from 2022 to 2023. We are optimistic about the company's performance, accelerate the valuation repair and raise it to the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the performance of real estate sales is weak, the price of raw materials rises, and the industry competition intensifies.
