\u3000\u30 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 54 Donghua Testing Technology Co.Ltd(300354) )
Core view: the company is the leader of domestic structural mechanical performance test and analysis system. 60% of its products are applied to the R & D link of military industry, benefiting from the independent control of core equipment. The revenue CAGR of 20182020 is 24% and the net profit CAGR is 66%. Based on the technical homology, the company will promote the equipment fault diagnosis technology in the military / civil PHM market, which is expected to become a new performance growth point. At the same time, the company continues to expand the category of scientific instruments and launch a new product "electrochemical station" in 2020, which will fully benefit from the development of new energy industry in the future.
Benefiting from the independent and controllable core equipment, the structural mechanics analysis system has ushered in a window period of rapid development.
The structural mechanics test system is a subdivision track of scientific research instruments, which is widely used in the fields of aerospace, shipbuilding and civil engineering. It has benefited from the accelerated assembly and upgrading of China's military equipment, and the demand for products has surged. Foreign brands such as American Ni and Danish B & K accounted for the main share in China. In December 2021, the National People's Congress revised and passed the science and technology progress law to upgrade China's science and technology governance system, bringing major opportunities for the import substitution of scientific research instruments. The company is the leader of domestic structural mechanics testing system, which is expected to fully benefit from armament assembly and import substitution.
PHM has broad growth space in military industry and manufacturing industry, and the company takes the lead in laying out the head market.
The intelligent maintenance platform based on PHM is a fault detection and equipment performance evaluation system, which is used for equipment life cycle health management. It is not only the upgrading direction of China's equipment manufacturing industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period, but also an important cornerstone of the digital twin system. Compared with Ni and other overseas general data acquisition brands, in the basic perception system part of the digital twin system, the company has many core technical advantages such as strong interference ability, high reliability and high-speed synchronization, as well as customization and service advantages. Based on the technical homology, the company cuts into the field of military and civil PHM. According to the disclosure of Donghao test official website, the company's PHM platform has been applied in the fields of port machinery, engineering machinery, petrochemical, papermaking, metallurgy and water affairs. It is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate in the future and become a new performance growth point.
The development of new energy industry promotes the surge in demand for electrochemical stations, which is expected to build the company's second growth pole.
Benefiting from the rapid development of lithium battery, hydrogen energy and energy storage industries, the demand for "electrochemical station" at the R & D end of enterprises and universities surged. The Chinese market is basically monopolized by foreign scientific instrument brands such as Princeton, gammry and biological, and there is a strong demand for import substitution. After five years of research and development, the company broke the monopoly, and its products have been applied in the fields of physics, chemistry and biomedicine in batches. The company takes advantage of customization to promote new energy production links, which is expected to realize the leap from R & D end application to production line end application and open up growth space.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the revenue growth rate of the company from 21 to 23 years will be 28% / 71% / 44%, and the net profit growth rate will be 64% / 79% / 49%, corresponding to PE 51x / 28x / 19x; For the first time, the investment rating of Buy-A is given.
Risk warning: the expansion of electrochemical station and civil PHM is lower than expected; The epidemic affects delivery; Loss of core technical management personnel.
