\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 116 Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) )
Investment logic
The upgrading of battery material system promotes the accelerated penetration of carbon nanotubes. With the trend of high nickel, silicon negative electrode and fast charging, the demand for carbon nanotubes will become more and more rigid, and carbon tubes are expected to accelerate the penetration in the world. We predict that the demand for carbon tube slurry will be 148000 tons in 22 years and more than 500000 tons in 2025. From 2021 to 2025, the compound growth rate will be 60%.
Carbon nanotubes have the technical attribute of continuous iteration, and the leading advantage will be continuously strengthened.
1) products: continue to iterate, further improve industry barriers and keep the company in the lead. The aspect ratio of carbon tube will be higher and higher in the future. It puts forward higher requirements for catalyst development, equipment renewal and dispersion technology. The continuous leading research and development will strengthen the advantages of the product end. At present, tiannai has realized the sales of three generations of products and developed the products to the fifth generation of single wall carbon nanotubes. The product side continues to lead the industry.
2) cost: large scale & recycling further consolidate the cost advantage. The company's production capacity & sales volume is leading the industry. The existing powder production capacity is 2000 tons, corresponding to 40000 tons of slurry. We expect that the company's shipment of conductive slurry will be 33000 tons in 2021, accounting for about 40% of the market. The powder capacity under construction is 6000 tons (corresponding to 120000 tons of slurry after reaching the production capacity), and the scale advantage continues to strengthen. The company's 45000 ton NMP recovery project (corresponding to about 48000 tons of slurry) has gradually begun to increase in volume. With the increase of recovery ratio, the slurry cost will be further reduced, and the cost advantage of the company will continue to strengthen.
The application field of carbon nanotubes has been continuously expanded, further opening up the growth space. Carbon tube has strong ductility and is expected to replace conductive carbon black in conductive masterbatch. The demand for conductive plastics by semiconductors and anti-static materials continues to grow. It is estimated that the market space of conductive masterbatch will be 9.3 billion in 2025, with a compound growth rate of about 10%. The company is building 7000 tons of conductive masterbatch, which will inject new growth momentum after it is put into operation.
Investment advice and valuation
The company continues to iterate in the carbon tube, and its leading position is expected to continue to strengthen, benefiting from the accelerated penetration of downstream carbon tubes. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 299 million, 602 million and 1.051 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.29, 2.59 and 4.52 yuan, corresponding PE of 119.7, 59.5 and 34.1 times, giving the company a valuation of 70 times in 22 years and corresponding target price of 182 yuan. It will be covered for the first time and rated as "overweight".
Risk
The downstream demand is lower than the expected risk, the risk of deterioration of the industrial competition pattern, the company's capacity construction is lower than the expected risk, the expansion of new customers is lower than the expected risk, and the product iteration does not maintain the leading risk. Lifting the ban on restricted shares & the risk of convertible bonds converting into shares.
