\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 933 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) )
Event: on March 18, the company released its annual report for 2021. The company achieved an operating revenue of 3.206 billion (+ 23.75%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 310 million (- 27.24%), and a gross profit margin of 26.32%.
In 2021, revenue continued to grow and profitability was under pressure. In 2021, the company achieved a year-on-year increase in revenue and a year-on-year decrease of about 27%, of which Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 854 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1%, and a single quarter net profit of 35 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 80%. The company's revenue growth slowed down in the fourth quarter, and the main reasons for the pressure on profitability include: 1) the downstream demand was affected due to the shortage of chip supply; 2) The price of raw materials rose, and the price of aluminum rose by more than 30% in 2021, resulting in the growth rate of the company's operating cost greater than that of revenue; 3) Rising international sea freight; 4) The appreciation of RMB has led to an increase of more than 100 million yuan in the company's financial expenses compared with 2020.
The proportion of new energy continues to increase, and the profit inflection point in 2022 is expected. In 2021, the contribution revenue of the company's new energy vehicle products increased by 180% year-on-year, and the proportion in the company's revenue increased significantly. According to the company's announcement, the company plans to reach 30% of the new energy in 2025 and 70% in 2030. In 2021, the company's top three customers were Valeo, Bosch and Magna, accounting for about 34% of the company's revenue. The top five customers contributed 1.46 billion yuan, accounting for about 45.5% of the company's revenue. In 2022, with the partial transmission of the cost side pressure brought by raw materials and freight, and the gradual easing of the shortage of chip supply, the turning point of the company's profitability is expected, and the gross profit margin is expected to improve gradually.
Gradually expand production capacity and actively layout integrated die casting. At present, the company's capacity utilization rate is at a high level. It expands its capacity around the following production bases: 1) No. 1-5 plant in Ningbo and Cicheng plant, covering an area of more than 300 mu; 2) Liuzhou factory, covering an area of about 90 mu, is mainly used for the production of small and medium-sized parts; 3) MAANSHAN plant is mainly used for the transfer of original production capacity and new orders; 4) Hanshan factory, mainly used for molten aluminum; 5) Mexican factory, covering an area of more than 60 mu, is mainly used for the supply of some overseas customers. The company's capacity expansion is accelerated. It is expected that the new plant of the company will be accelerated in the next 3-5 years. Actively layout integrated die-casting, and large tonnage die-casting machines are in place one after another. According to the company's 2021 annual report, the company now has 1250 tons, 1650 tons, 2200 tons, 2800 tons, 4400 tons and other large-scale die-casting machines of various specifications. This year, it plans to import 3100 tons, 6100 tons and 8400 tons of large-scale die-casting machines, and will provide a technical team for large-scale die-casting machine design, die-casting process and die-casting production, so as to accelerate the putting of new equipment into production.
Products in the three power sector have become the core growth point, and new customers have gradually expanded. Focusing on the development trend of electrification and intelligence, the company has newly developed aluminum alloy die castings suitable for new energy electric drive (three in one and multi in one products), PDU / BDU shell, battery pack, transmission shell, rear bottom sector, inverter DCAC shell, heater shell, etc., basically realizing the full coverage of aluminum alloy precision die castings for new energy three electricity system, automatic driving / ADAS image system and thermal management system, And continue to expand to automobile structural parts. According to the announcement of the company, the company has expanded the new energy projects of old customers such as Bosch, liandian, Magna and dianchan, gradually entered the supporting models of new power customers such as ideal, Zero run and Weilai, and expanded the projects of new customers such as Huichuan, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Shunyu, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and so on.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.232/58.39/7.825 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 6.56/8.20/1.216 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current market value, PE will be 17.5, 14.0 and 9.4 times respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "Buy-A" rating, with a six-month target price of 16.00 yuan / share.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuation; Covid-19 pneumonia epidemic has the risk of force majeure impact on the automotive industry; Risks of substitution of new technologies and materials;
