\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 660 Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) )
Core view
Revenue grew steadily in 2021, and the revenue in the fourth quarter hit a record high. In 2021, Fuyao achieved a revenue of 23.603 billion (year-on-year + 18.6%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.146 billion (year-on-year + 21.97%), and a total profit deducted from the exchange standard of 4.35 billion (year-on-year + 23.1%). In the quarter of splitting orders, the revenue in the fourth quarter was 6.45 billion (year-on-year + 5.22%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 550 million (year-on-year - 37.3%), and the total profit deducted from foreign exchange was 1.071 billion (Q3 about 1.028 billion). Overall, the growth rate of the company's revenue in 2021 exceeded that of the industry steadily (passenger car production + 7.1% year-on-year). The revenue in the fourth quarter hit a record high. Multiple factors such as Sam loss, rising raw material cost, exchange loss and shipping cost dragged down the company's net profit performance.
The increase of sea freight and soda ash prices affected the gross profit margin, and the cost rate decreased steadily. Considering the comparable caliber adjusted by the accounting standards, the company's gross profit margin in 2021 was 35.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6pct, mainly due to the impact of the rise in the price of sea freight and soda ash, in which the gross profit margin affected by sea freight decreased by 0.98pct year-on-year, and the gross profit margin affected by the rise in the price of soda ash decreased by 0.45pct year-on-year. After adjustment according to the new accounting policies, the company's four-year rate in 2021 was 20.25%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.16pct, of which the rate of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses was 4.88/8.24/2.91/4.22% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.40 / - 1.31 / + 0.43 / + 0.13pct.
Overseas business continues to advance, and we are optimistic about innovative automotive glass products in the long term. German end: fysam, an aluminum decorative strip company acquired in 2019, has completed the project integration in the first half of 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2021, due to the impact of one-time scrap provision, Sam loss is expected to increase month on month; US side: the impact of the epidemic has gradually weakened since the second half of 20 years. In the first half of 20 years / the first half of 20 years / the first half of 21 years / the first half of 21 years, Fuyao US company's revenue was 1.33 billion / 3.25 billion / 1.92 billion / 3.9 billion respectively, its net profit was - 90 million / 02 million / 130 million / 270 million respectively, and its net interest rate was - 6.9% / 0.1% / 6.9% / 7% respectively; In 2021, the proportion of Fuyao intelligent panoramic sky glass, dimmable glass, head up display glass and other high value-added products increased by 3.31pct, and the price of Fuyao automobile glass per square meter continued to increase from 152.4 yuan in 2016 to 180.5 yuan in 2021, with CAGR of 3.44%. At present, the dimming glass has been equipped in extreme helium 001, GAC aion s plus and other models. Risk tip: the uncertainty of overseas epidemic affects the progress of the company's auto glass business and Sam integration.
Investment suggestion: lower the profit forecast and maintain the "maintain" rating.
In the short term, the company's performance is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 20% in 2022 under the background of glass upgrading, mitigation of shipping and chips and improvement of market share; In the long-term dimension, as the global leader in automotive glass, the company is expected to 1) increase the consumption (area) of single car glass from 4 square meters to 6 square meters under the general trend of intelligence; 2) The value of a single square meter (coating, heat insulation, edging, HUD, dimming, 5g communication, etc.) increased from 600 yuan to more than 2000 yuan. Follow up automotive glass and network to open new horizons, industry ASP upgrade is expected to accelerate. Considering the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, the impact of core shortage on production scheduling, exchange gains and losses, raw materials and shipping costs, the profit forecast is lowered. The profit forecast for 22-24 years is expected to be 4.8/57/7.1 billion respectively (the previous profit forecast was 5.0/60/7.3 billion), and the corresponding PE is 21 / 17 / 14x respectively, maintaining the overweight rating.
Revenue grew steadily in 2021, and Q4 revenue hit a record high Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 23.603 billion (year-on-year + 18.57%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.146 billion (year-on-year + 20.97%), a exchange loss of 528 million yuan and a exchange loss of 422 million yuan in the same period of last year. In 2021, the total profit deducting the exchange standard was 4.35 billion (year-on-year + 23.1%), a net profit deducting the exchange standard was 3.674 billion (year-on-year + 21.53%), and a dividend of 2.61 billion (10 yuan per 10 shares (including tax)) was proposed to be distributed, with a dividend ratio of more than 80%, The dividend yield is 2.6%. In the quarter of splitting orders, the company achieved a revenue of 6.45 billion (year-on-year + 5.22%, month on month + 14.98%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 550 million (year-on-year - 37.30%, month on month - 33.41%), and the total profit deducted from the exchange standard was 1.071 billion (Q3 was about 1.028 billion).
In conclusion, the company's revenue grew steadily in 2021, and multiple factors such as Sam loss, rising raw material cost (- 110 million), exchange loss (- 530 million) and shipping cost (- 230 million) dragged down the company's net profit performance in 2021.
Affected by the rise of sea freight and soda ash price, considering the comparable caliber adjusted by accounting standards, the company's gross profit margin in 2021 was -0.6pct year-on-year. During the reporting period, the company changed the relevant transportation costs from the expenses originally included in the current period to amortized to the operating costs on the same basis as the recognition of goods or services revenue according to the implementation questions and answers of the Ministry of Finance on the accounting standards for business enterprises in November 2021; The daily repair expenses of fixed assets related to the production and processing of inventories are changed from the expenses originally included in the current period to be treated according to the principle of determining the cost of inventories. At the same time, the company made retroactive adjustments for 2019 and 2020. After the change of the above accounting policies, the gross profit margin in 2021 was 35.9%, compared with 36.5% in the same period of last year, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6pct, mainly due to the rise in the price of sea freight and soda ash. Among them, the year-on-year increase in sea freight was RMB 231 million, which affected the year-on-year decrease of 0.98pct; The price of soda ash increased by 107 million yuan year-on-year, affecting the gross profit margin by 0.45 PCT. Due to the change of accounting standards, some management and sales expenses are moved to the cost side in Q4, and the caliber is not comparable. Here, the caliber of gross profit rate sales rate management rate is used. The caliber of single Q4 gross profit rate sales expense rate management expense rate is 20.85% (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 are 24.43% / 23.86% / 22.24% respectively).
On the whole, the cost has decreased steadily in 2021. Considering that the apparent data of expense rate is not comparable due to the change of accounting policy, we hereby adjust the sales expense rate and management expense rate in 2020 in accordance with the provisions of the new accounting policy. Under comparable standards, the company's four-year rate in 2021 was 20.25%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.16pct, of which the rate of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses was 4.88/8.24/2.91/4.22% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.40 / - 1.31 / + 0.43 / + 0.13pct. Affected by the increase of exchange loss plus the decrease of interest income, the financial expense rate of the company increased in 2021.
In 2021, Fuyao auto glass business continued to advance outside China. Since 2013, Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) annual revenue growth and quarterly revenue growth fluctuation trend are generally consistent with that of China's auto industry, and its absolute value of revenue growth basically remains higher than that of the industry to a certain extent. In 2021, under the background of industry chip shortage, the production and sales of China's passenger cars increased by 7.1% and 6.5% respectively year-on-year, and the company's revenue increased by 18.6% year-on-year; In 21q4, China's passenger car production was flat (+ 0.04%) compared with Q3, and the company's revenue grew by 5.2%, which continued to outperform the industry. In terms of split regions, Fuyao America's revenue in the first half of 20 years / the first half of 20 years / the first half of 21 years / the first half of 21 years / the first half of 21 years was 1.33 billion / 3.25 billion / 1.92 billion / 3.9 billion respectively, the net profit was - 90 million / 02 million / 130 million / 270 million respectively, and the net interest rate was - 6.9% / 0.1% / 6.9% / 7% respectively.
European production capacity gradually recovered, Sam integration completed, and 21q4 revenue increased month on month. Since the acquisition of German Sam aluminum decorative strip assets in 2019, in order to improve its operation efficiency, the company has started the integration work, and completed the project integration in the first half of 2020, which has ensured to a certain extent that the loss of Sam has not been amplified under the background that the overseas epidemic of Q2 has greatly affected the revenue. Since Q3, with the mitigation of the overseas epidemic, the utilization rate of Sam capacity has improved month on month, and the loss range has shown a loss reduction trend since 20q2, 21q4 Sam loss increased month on month due to the impact of one-time scrap provision.
Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) has always maintained high investment in new products and technologies. In order to maintain its competitive advantage, the company has continuously increased its R & D investment. The R & D investment of the company has increased from 155 million yuan in 2010 to 815 million yuan in 2020, with CAGR reaching 18.05%. The R & D investment of the company is higher than that of its competitors in the industry. Since 2014, the R & D expense rate of the company has been higher than 3.80%. In 2020, the R & D expense rate reached 4.10%, which is much higher than 1.62% of nitrate and 1.13% of Saint Gobain. The company has set up an intelligent innovation center, established an intelligent Internet connection innovation team, made rapid research and development to tackle key problems, made breakthroughs in the key forming processes and equipment of automobile glass, glass antenna, coating, optoelectronics and other core technology fields, and developed lightweight ultra-thin glass, coated heating glass, head up display glass, ultra insulating glass, etc RFID 5g glass with internet connection antenna, intelligent panoramic sky curtain glass, etc, Bring users a new green, intelligent, energy-saving, environment-friendly, safe and comfortable driving experience. At the same time, in response to the national requirements of "carbon neutralization" and "carbon peak", Fuyao actively introduced a highly automated production line in innovative product manufacturing, greatly improved product production efficiency and product quality, and further reduced production energy consumption.
With R & D innovation and technology leading, the company's glass products continue to add value and upgrade. The company continued to promote the development of automotive glass in the direction of "safety and comfort, energy conservation and environmental protection, beauty and fashion, and intelligent integration". The proportion of high value-added products such as intelligent panoramic ceiling glass, dimmable glass, head up display glass, ultra insulating glass, lightweight ultra-thin glass and coated heating glass continued to increase, accounting for an increase of 3.31 PCT over the same period of last year, which reflected the value. The price of Fuyao automobile glass per square meter continued to increase from 152.4 yuan in 2016 to 180.5 yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 3.44%. In September 2021, Fuyao Group formed a joint team with Tsinghua University and Peking University to launch the digital intelligent manufacturing innovation project and promote the innovative research and development of intelligent manufacturing of automotive glass; In December 2021, the world's first panoramic sightseeing mountain tourism train was officially offline in Zhuzhou, Hunan Province. It is expected to be put into use in Lijiang urban comprehensive Rail Transit Line 1 in late 2022. The appearance front window of the train "sky mirror" adopts the design of super curved front window with a glass area of about 5.2 m2. It is the largest rail transit front window product at present. In addition, the side window of the train adopts electric tintable glass.
Looking forward to the future, the applications represented by HUD (Volkswagen MEB / great wall new platform), all glass roof (Tesla, Xiaopeng, etc.) and dimming glass are becoming more and more popular. Under the background of electric intelligence, the promotion of ASP in the automotive glass industry is expected to accelerate. We believe that with its functions in heat insulation, sound insulation, entertainment and safety, dimming glass will give panoramic sky glass more functions. Fuyao dimming glass products have a comprehensive layout and have been supplied with mainstream independent brand electric intelligent vehicles. At present, Fuyao's dimming glass products can be divided into PDLC dimming glass, thermochromic glass and EC dimming glass. As an optional part, PDLC dimming panoramic ceiling glass has been installed in Landu free, which can realize 10 levels of adjustable transmittance and brightness and isolate 99% of ultraviolet light; Thermochromic glass can be customized with a variety of glass colors, and the color can change with temperature; EC dimming sky curtain is a new heavy dimming glass launched by Fuyao this year. It has the characteristics of low haze, intelligent induction automatic dimming, heat insulation and ultraviolet insulation. It adopts the EC electrochromic technology of optical chess to realize gradual color change dimming. At present, it has been carried on polar helium 001, GAC aion s plus and other models.
Fuyao Group won the "China Quality" award, the third "Golden Collection Award" with fixed panoramic skylight, and the gold award of 2021 lingxuan award with intelligent panoramic sky curtain. On September 16, the fourth quality award conference was held in Hangzhou, China. Fuyao Group, with the quality management mode of "four products in one and double drive", was affirmed by the selection and recognition Committee and won the China Quality Award. On October 18, the 2021 third "golden series Award" China's top 100 auto new supply chain award ceremony hosted by Gaishi automobile was grandly opened in Shanghai. Fuyao Group won the third "Golden Award" in the field of interior and exterior decoration of China's top 100 new auto supply chain with the "fixed panoramic skylight". On December 4, 2021 China Auto Supply Chain Summit and the 6th lingxuan award ceremony were held in Wuhan. Fuyao Group won the Gold Award for mass production of the sixth lingxuan award by virtue of the intelligent panoramic sky curtain, which is the heavyweight award of "lingxuan Award" for Fuyao for six consecutive times.
Investment suggestion: continuously recommend the global leader Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , and maintain the overweight rating. Under the background of electric and intelligent vehicles, industry opportunities revolve around 1) incremental / upgraded parts; 2) The independent rise of the industrial chain is carried out in two main lines. Under the main line of incremental / upgraded parts, the automotive glass naturally has the advantage of clamping position (accounting for one third of the body surface area and surrounding the passengers). The early upgrading focuses on the hudization of the front gear and the roof curtain. In the medium term, the penetration of the dimming glass is expected to become the Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) output carrier of the ecological application end in the vehicle in the long term (carrying the information outside the central control screen), It has great growth space (the value of a single car ranges from 70015 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) +).
Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) with the growth of China's automobile industry for many years, with extreme focus and strong cost control ability, it has grown into a global leader in automotive glass (31% market share), and its profitability far exceeds that of global competitors. In 2021, the company's revenue grew steadily (year-on-year + 19%). Multiple factors such as Sam loss, rising cost of raw materials (- 110 million), exchange loss (- 530 million) and shipping cost (- 230 million) dragged down the company's net profit performance in 2021 (3.1 billion, year-on-year + 21%), which was affected by shipping charges and soda ash prices
