\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Event:
The company released its 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 10.747 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.757 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.33%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company was 3.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.76%; Operating net cash flow was 3.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 199.79%; EPS 9.28 yuan. The performance is slightly lower than the market expectation.
Comments:
Growth hormone business maintained rapid growth, covid-19 epidemic affected vaccination: the operating revenue of 2021q1 ~ Q4 was RMB 2.2812682/3.276/2.508 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.35% / 18.88% / 31.97% / 15.17%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 875 / 10.49 / 12.24 / 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 61.21% / + 36.70% / + 28.78% / – 22.40%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 872 / 10.49 / 12.38 / 582 million, a year-on-year increase of + 60.48% / + 45.11% / + 31.46% / – 21.69%. The decline in revenue and profit growth in Q4 in a single quarter is estimated to be mainly due to the increase in R & D investment and the decline in vaccine sales of its subsidiary Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) . From the perspective of subsidiaries:
Kinsay pharmaceutical: the operating revenue was 8.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 41.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.684 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 33.46%. Growth hormone business maintained rapid growth, with an overall revenue growth rate of more than 40%, of which powder injection accounted for about 10%, with a growth rate of nearly 40%; Water needle accounts for more than 70%, with a growth rate of more than 30%; Long term water injection accounted for more than 18%, with a growth rate of more than 110%. The company continued to focus on the core business of Pediatrics, and combined with the existing product layout, increased the incubation of non growth hormone products and new business expansion.
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) : operating income of 1.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 16.13%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 244 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 40.48%. The negative growth in revenue and profit was mainly due to the impact of covid-19 epidemic and covid-19 vaccine vaccination on the vaccination rate of other vaccine products. In particular, covid-19 vaccination for people aged 3-17 was launched throughout the country in the second half of 2021, resulting in a great impact on the promotion and vaccination of varicella attenuated live vaccine and freeze-dried nasal spray influenza attenuated live vaccine, the main products of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) in the short term. As the follow-up epidemic situation is gradually controlled, the performance of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) is expected to recover gradually.
Huakang pharmaceutical: the operating revenue was 642 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.13%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 43 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.18%. Huakang pharmaceutical’s core product price system and recruitment standards have remained stable, and the two products have entered the medical insurance catalogue, continuously enriching the types of traditional Chinese medicine products, creating good conditions for the development of the whole industrial chain.
High tech real estate: the operating income was 663 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 11.02%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 86 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 37.23%. The negative growth of income and profit is mainly due to the comprehensive impact of the overall inflection point of the real estate market, resulting in the obstruction of sales.
Continue to promote innovative R & D and product upgrading: in 2021, the company invested 1.092 billion yuan in R & D, a year-on-year increase of + 60.25%, accounting for 10.16% of operating revenue, and the R & D investment continued to increase. The R & D Progress of some key varieties is as follows:
Kinsey pharmaceutical: several specifications of existing growth hormone products have been added respectively for children with short stature caused by Noonan syndrome, children with short stature or growth disorder caused by shox gene defect, children with short stature caused by achondroplasia, and girls with growth disorder caused by gonadal hypoplasia (Turner syndrome) Indications such as adult short bowel syndrome for nutritional support, indications for the treatment of idiopathic short stature (ISS) and Prader Willi syndrome (PWS) have been included in the list of priority reviewed varieties by the State Food and Drug Administration and are expected to be approved in 2022; Kintolizumab injection reported by both China and the United States has been recognized as an orphan drug by FDA;
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) : the clinical research of live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine has been completed, the clinical approval of nasal influenza vaccine (liquid preparation) has been obtained and the clinical research has been started, the clinical research of acellular pertussis (three component) combined vaccine has been started, and the research and development progress of key projects under research such as whole human anti rabies monochloron antibody has been accelerated at the same time.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that the centralized purchase of growth hormone may bring certain price pressure, the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 was lowered to RMB 4.760/5.941 billion (the original forecast was RMB 5.036/6.256 billion, with a decrease of 5% / 5% respectively). The new forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was RMB 7.413 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 26.67% / 24.82% / 24.77%. According to the latest equity calculation, the corresponding EPS was RMB 11.76/14.68/18.32, The current price corresponding to PE is 15 / 12 / 9 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the R & D and promotion of new products do not meet expectations, and the competition for growth hormone is intensified.
