\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) Leon Technology Co.Ltd(300603) 300)
From January to February, the income of aerial work platform doubled and the industry maintained a high boom. From January to February, the company achieved a revenue of 340 million yuan, an increase of more than 60% at the same time, of which the revenue of aerial work platform of strategic focus business was 140 million yuan (the revenue accounted for 42%), a year-on-year increase of 119%. Under the background of the high base last year and the increasing downward pressure on the economy this year, the company's revenue still achieved rapid growth, the rental rate increased steadily year-on-year, and the rental price was stable month on month. On the one hand, it showed that the overall demand of the aerial work platform industry was strong and the penetration rate continued to increase. On the other hand, it also showed that the company's business undertaking ability was excellent. The aerial work platform has rich application scenarios, covering the aerial work needs of various facilities in the fields of "infrastructure + manufacturing + real estate" and "new construction + stock", such as property maintenance and repair, equipment installation, building decoration, etc. it is less affected by the current real estate cycle fluctuation and the operation risk is scattered. At present, the total / per capita ownership of high-altitude left and right platforms in China is only about 29% / 7% of that in the United States. There is a lot of potential room for improvement in the future. Under the trend of "replacing people with machinery" in construction and other industries, the industry is expected to continue a high boom. As the leader of construction machinery leasing, the company is expected to show excellent growth.
The 600 million fixed increase has been accepted. If it is successfully completed, it will strengthen the driving force of growth. Recently, the CSRC accepted the application materials for the company's non-public offering of A-Shares with a fund-raising of 600 million yuan. By the end of 2021q3, the company had about 60 million yuan in cash and the asset liability ratio was 58%. If the subsequent issuance is successful, the company's financial strength is expected to be greatly enhanced and the number of aerial work platforms will continue to increase. According to the grassroots research data, construction equipment leaseholders can pay at least 20% of the total payment for equipment purchased from upstream equipment manufacturers as the down payment, and the remaining payment can be paid regularly year by year in the following years. We assume that the company's 600 million fixed capital increase is mainly for the development of aerial work platform business, with an average price of 100000 yuan per unit. Under the assumption of 20% down payment, the company can purchase up to 30000 aerial work platforms, which is 64% of the company's aerial work platform management scale of 47000 by the end of 2021. Therefore, if the fixed capital increase is successfully issued, the company's annual scale growth momentum is expected to be further strengthened.
Join hands with ant chain to build a trusted terminal T-box for construction machinery and help develop asset light operation mode. According to the official wechat of the company, the company jointly released the T-box enabling industry of the trusted terminal of construction machinery with ant technology. Its core is the Maas trusted module of ant chain based on blockchain technology, which is committed to realizing the real-time uplink of operation data such as operation vehicle track, total mileage and continuous operation time. The data source is reliable and can not be tampered with, which can better reflect whether the equipment is in good operation and maintenance. The application of trusted terminals, on the one hand, can enhance the data credibility of leasing enterprises in obtaining financing, handling equipment insurance, developing third-party asset management and other businesses, reduce the concerns of the management about the information asymmetry of the operator, and help the development of asset light operation mode of the company; On the other hand, it also provides important support for the company's second-hand equipment treatment (residual value calculation) and leading the construction of industry maintenance standard system.
Investment suggestion: we predict that from 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 490 / 650 / 850 million respectively, with a simultaneous increase of 50% / 33% / 32%, EPS will be RMB 0.54/0.72/0.95 respectively, CAGR will be 38% from 2020 to 2023, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 22 / 16 / 12 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: downward risk of rental rate of main equipment; The risk of rent decline due to the intensification of industry competition; The promotion of fixed growth is less than the expected risk, etc.
