\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 318 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) )
Core view
The operating profit of the parent company increased steadily, and the dividend return increased. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 101.6 billion yuan, yoy-29%, mainly due to the impact of investment impairment provision and changes in discount rate, but the operating profit attributable to the parent company reached 148 billion yuan, yoy + 6.1%, with steady performance growth; Operating roe reached 18.9%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.6pp; The dividend per share was 2.38 yuan, and the dividend rate linked to the operating profit of the parent company reached 29.4%, yoy + 0.6pp, and the shareholder return increased steadily. EV reached 1.4 trillion yuan, yoy + 5.07%, lower than expected. In addition to the weakening of NBV kinetic energy, it was also dragged down by the negative deviation of operation experience and investment return, which were – 1.3% and – 1.9% respectively.
NBV is still under significant pressure, but the team has increased production capacity and stable income. In 2021, the NBV of the company reached 37.9 billion yuan, yoy-23.6%. The performance deteriorated in the second half of the year (2h21 decreased by – 43.3%), showing a sharp decline trend for two consecutive years (2020 was – 34.7%), mainly due to the joint drag of new orders and margin. Margin fell 5.5pp to 27.8% year-on-year, nbv-fyp reached 136.3 billion yuan, yoy-8.5%, of which the mixed business of personal insurance channel guarantee and savings increased by 14.9% year-on-year, and the demand is still considerable. At the end of the 21st century, there were Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) agents, down 41.4% from the beginning of the year, but the per capita first year premium increased by more than 22% year-on-year. The income under the comprehensive financial coordination remained relatively stable, only a slight decline of 0.6%.
The quality of property insurance has improved, and the provision for impairment has fully promoted the investment side to cross the low point. In the 21st year, the premium of auto insurance fell by 3.7% year-on-year to 188.8 billion yuan due to the reform of commercial vehicle fees; The year-on-year growth rate of Italian health insurance reached 32.6%, and the demand for short-term security is still relatively strong. Cor has been optimized from 1.1pp to 98% year-on-year, of which the expense ratio / loss ratio is – 7.6pp / + 6.5pp to 31% / 67% respectively, which is in line with the regulatory orientation of benefiting consumers. We believe that property insurance has entered an upward channel of both quantity and quality this year, and the prospect is worth looking forward to. The total return on investment and net return on investment decreased by 2.2pp and 0.5pp to 4.0% and 4.6% respectively year-on-year. However, the total provision for China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) impairment in the whole year was 43.2 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3 billion yuan compared with 1h21. We believe that with the promotion of the restructuring plan, the negative impact is gradually fading, the investment side has crossed the low point, and the positive contribution to EV growth is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The company’s technology business continues to incubate and its comprehensive financial advantages continue to highlight, but the growth of EV is lower than expected. The EVPs in 202224 is slightly reduced to 85.53/95.88/107.39 yuan (the original forecast is 91.26 / 103.11 / -), and the corresponding P / EV is 0.56x/0.50x/0.45x respectively. Using the segment valuation method to evaluate the overall value of the company, it is estimated that the target market value in 2022 is 1215.9 billion yuan, the target price is 66.52 yuan (the original target price is 71.24 yuan), and the corresponding P / EV of the group in 2022 is 0.78x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales of new orders are less than expected, the long-term interest rate continues to decline, the equity market fluctuates sharply, the impairment risk of equity investment is accrued, and the policy risk is.
