\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 076 Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) )
Global pharmaceutical R & D investment maintains high growth, and cdmo penetration is expected to continue to increase
According to Frost & Sullivan, the global pharmaceutical R & D expenditure CAGR will reach 7.6% from 2020 to 2025, exceeding 6.9% from 2016 to 2020; Among them, the CAGR of the United States is expected to be 7.8% in the same period, while that of China is 15%. The global CMO / cdmo penetration rate is expected to increase from 36.04% in 2017 to 52.22% in 2022; The global Cao market is expected to exceed US $1.6 billion in 20162020 and reach US $106.6 billion in 20162020 0%。
The funnel-shaped project echelon of auseno has been formed to deepen and expand customers and reduce the dependence on single large varieties
The company has established long-term cooperative relations with Gilead, inset, Pfizer and other large global pharmaceutical enterprises, and the company is strengthening BD team construction in Europe, America and China to further deepen and expand customers; The apc180 API project 2020q2 signed by zoetis and the company was approved by FDA for listing at the end of the year, and is in a period of rapid volume increase; At the same time, the company has built a reasonable gradient reserve of funnel-shaped projects. It is expected that the projects entering the NDA stage will be approved in 2022, which is expected to accelerate performance growth and reduce the dependence on single major varieties.
Raw materials and preparations are in full bloom and go hand in hand, which is expected to become a new pillar of performance
Liraglutide, lanreotide acetate and other varieties are in or ready to be reviewed with downstream customer preparations, and the large volume can be expected in the future; The new centralized purchase of thymus method for injection has won the bid successfully, and the terminal sales is expected to increase rapidly.
Peptide cdmo new blue ocean, the company’s leading technology, is expected to become a new growth point.
According to Lonza and QY research, it is speculated that the scale of peptide drug cdmo will rapidly increase from 760 million in 2010 to $1.43 billion in 2018, and the CAGR is 8.2%. Considering the high technical difficulty of large-scale production of peptide drugs and the large difference between production equipment and common small molecule drug production equipment, it is expected that the willingness of peptide cdmo outsourcing will be stronger. The company is expected to obtain the first mover advantage by virtue of technology accumulation. At present, Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) Abbott and other projects have been carried out.
Investment advice and profit forecast
The formation of small molecule cdmo project echelon and independent selection of products are accelerating, and the expansion of polypeptide cdmo has also achieved initial results. The long-term rapid growth of the company can be expected. We estimate that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 642 / 821 / 1047 million yuan, net profit will be 114 / 138 / 168 million yuan, EPS will be 0.54/0.65/0.79 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE will be 58.21/47.99/39.59 times, giving a “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The execution of cdmo orders is less than expected, which is affected by the fluctuation of single large orders; Independent choice of product R & D risk; Independent choice of product sales uncertainty; The development of peptide cdmo is not smooth; Exchange rate fluctuation risk, etc.
