\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 131 Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) )
Relying on strong chemical capacity, the three sectors will develop together:
The strong ability of chemical synthesis and development is the core competitive factor of Haoyuan. Based on different links of small molecule drug research and development, the company has established two business segments: front-end and back-end, and successively evolved three specific fields: molecular blocks and tool compounds, difficult to imitate drugs and cdmo. Thanks to the high outlook of the industry and its good operation, the company has maintained rapid growth in recent years.
Benefiting from the acceleration of new drug research and development, the demand for building blocks and tool compounds is growing rapidly:
Molecular blocks and tool compounds are special reagents, which are widely used in the development of new drugs. Thanks to the continuous improvement of global scientific research funds and R & D investment of pharmaceutical enterprises, the demand for special reagents has increased rapidly. Relying on rich products that closely follow the scientific research trend, intuitive and convenient purchase channels and humanized additional services, the company's molecular block and tool compound business is booming and has achieved a wide market influence.
The difficult to imitate drug business has entered the harvest period, and the new drug business has extended to cdmo:
Due to high technical barriers, the initial commercial value of difficult to imitate drugs is high, and the decline process is slow. The company continues to take the lead in launching new varieties to achieve sustainable high-quality profits. In addition to regular sales, Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) a total of three products have signed sharing agreements with downstream preparation enterprises, of which azyburin and trabecotidine are about to break away from patent protection, which is expected to bring additional performance flexibility to the company.
Driven by customer demand, the company seized the opportunity of industry development and officially laid out the cdmo sector since 2018. The company's early R & D capacity of new drugs has been relatively mature, and large-scale production facilities are under construction, which is expected to be put into use in the second half of 2022. The company has been deeply engaged in the field of ADC for many years and can provide customers with a wide variety of toxins and linkers. With the R & D and listing of ADC drugs, the business has also entered the stage of large-scale supply.
First coverage and "recommended" rating: the company benefited from the increased efforts of scientific research and industrial innovation related to the pharmaceutical industry, and built three business segments based on the ability of chemical synthesis. After the implementation of large-scale production capacity of the factory, it is expected to increase the proportion of self-produced products and keep more profits in the company. Regardless of the acquisition of the remaining uncertainties, the company's EPS is expected to be 2.56, 3.94 and 5.88 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 43 times of PE in 2022. For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: if the customer's needs cannot be met, the company may lose orders or even customers; There are uncertainties in the R & D and sales of drugs. If the progress is lower than expected, it may affect the profitability of the company; During the period of high-speed expansion, if the improvement of the company's management ability can not keep up with the rhythm, the operation quality may be affected.
