\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 363 Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) )
Core view
A rising breeding star Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) was founded in April 2011. At the beginning of its establishment, it was an agricultural and animal husbandry enterprise mainly engaged in pig feed; Since 2014, the company has gradually extended the industrial chain to the pig breeding industry, and the breeding volume has been expanding. In 2021, the company sold 3.2459 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 141.1%. At present, the company is in the key stage of secondary entrepreneurship. The company implements the dual main industry development strategy of "feed + pig raising", and strives to improve the value of pig industry chain and create the integrated operation advantage of industrial chain.
Pig breeding has entered the investment harvest period. At present, the company has a complete self breeding system. At the beginning of March 2022, the number of sows in the company has reached 320000. By the end of February 2022, the total number of pigs in the company was 1832800, an increase of 56.9% year-on-year. 1) In terms of slaughter volume, due to the company's top-down expansion of pig production capacity in the early stage, the current slaughter structure is dominated by piglets. In the first half of 2021, piglets account for 67% and fat pigs account for only 26%. With the production of the company's fattening barn, the proportion of fattening pigs will gradually increase in the future. The company's future fattening matching rate targets are 50% in 2022, 75% in 2023 and basically full fattening in 2024. 2) In terms of cost, as the company's production is currently in the supporting promotion stage, the overall cost does not reach the ideal state, but the cost of piglets in some of the company's fully produced sow farms has reached 350 yuan / head, and the complete cost of breeding units in the stable production stage has reached about 16 yuan / kg. With the strengthening and replication of capacity release and cost reduction measures, the company has great room for improvement in future costs.
The feed business is rejuvenated. The company started its business with pig feed in 2011. At present, its feed products cover pig feed, poultry feed, aquatic feed, ruminant feed and other categories. At present, the company's feed production capacity is about 7 million tons. In the first half of 2021, pig feed accounted for 59.8% of the total sales structure of the company; Poultry feed accounted for 28.1%; Aquatic feed and other feeds accounted for 12.1%. Under the pain of the decline in pig feed sales caused by non plague in 2019, the company chose the opportunity to expand the sales of poultry feed and aquatic feed, and the sales volume increased rapidly. After two years of low gross profit in the market, the company's poultry business has begun to take shape, and the gross profit margin has significantly returned. In the future, non pig products will become a new driving force for the performance growth of the company's feed sector.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
With the gradual release of the company's production capacity, it is estimated that the sales volume from 2021 to 2023 will be 324.6/6/8 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 141.1% / 84.8% / 33.3% respectively. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be -1.178 / - 453 / 1.625 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 305.7% / + 61.6% / + 458.9% respectively. Considering that the performance of some comparable companies in 22 years is consistent and the expectation is still abnormal, and the performance returns to normal with the recovery of the cycle in 23 years, 11xpe is given according to the 23-year level, the target price is 26.07 yuan, and the "buy" rating is given for the first coverage.
Risk tips: epidemic risk, pig price fluctuation risk, cash flow risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, food safety risk, etc.
