\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 933 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) )
Event:
Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) released the annual report for 2021: during the reporting period, the company achieved a revenue of 3.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.75%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 27.24%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non profits was 235 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 34.86%.
Key investment points:
The revenue of new energy vehicle related businesses increased by 180%. In Q4 of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 854 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.76%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 31 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 82.07%. It is noteworthy that in 2021, the three businesses of new energy vehicle thermal management system, new energy vehicle electronic control system and electric drive system products increased the most significantly, accounting for more than 7% of the revenue. The overall sales revenue of new energy vehicle products increased by about 180% year-on-year, showing a strong growth momentum. As of the date of the annual report, among the new projects obtained by the company in 2022, the expected amount of new energy vehicle products accounted for more than 80%. With the gradual mass production of the company’s orders for “new energy vehicles + intelligent driving”, it will make a positive contribution to the company’s operation.
During this period, the rise of expense rate brought short-term pressure on the profit side. In 2021, the company’s financial expense rate and R & D expense rate increased significantly year-on-year, of which the R & D expense rate was 5.75%, year-on-year + 0.8pct, mainly due to the increase of R & D investment in new energy vehicle projects; The financial expense ratio was 2.69%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.7pct, mainly due to the increase in losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations.
The short-term gross profit margin is greatly affected by the fluctuation of raw material price and sea freight, so it is optimistic about the medium and long-term improvement space. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 26.3%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.02pct. The main reasons for the decline of the company’s gross profit margin are as follows: 1. Under the global epidemic environment, the Shanghai aluminum index increased by 32.5% in 2021, and the cost increased due to the rise of raw material prices; 2. The proportion of the company’s overseas business accounts for about 2 / 3, the international shipping price rises continuously, and the freight is adjusted to the operating cost due to the new revenue standard, dragging down the gross profit margin. At present, the global epidemic situation has gradually improved, but the situation is still severe. The superposition of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a certain impact on the upstream raw material supply. Although it does not endanger the safety of the supply chain, it has led to significant price fluctuations. We have described it in detail in the report how to see the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the automotive industry. In view of the rising price of upstream raw materials, the company has established a product price linkage adjustment mechanism with customers to transfer the fluctuation of aluminum price to downstream customers and alleviate the impact on business development. We believe that with the rapid adjustment of the company’s business policies, the company’s profitability will stabilize. At the same time, the global covid-19 epidemic has gradually entered the normalization, and the shipping price has been adjusted periodically. There is a large space for the medium and long-term improvement of the company’s gross profit margin.
Layout integration die casting, further development space. At present, the company has 1250t, 1650T, 2200t, 2800t, 4400t and other die-casting machines of various specifications and models. Its products involve automobile wiper system, fuel filtration system, automobile air conditioning system, engine bracket, three electricity system, steering system, etc. Integrated die casting is a general trend driven by Tesla‘s production and manufacturing revolution. This year, the company plans to import 3500t, 6100t, 8400t and other large die-casting machines in the new factory to rapidly develop large aluminum die-casting structural parts. At the same time, the company has been deeply engaged in the industry for many years and has good customer resources. Its end customers cover almost all medium and high-end automobile enterprises. We believe that the integrated layout die casting will give full play to the technology and customer advantages accumulated by the company for many years, and the revenue scale will be further developed.
Profit forecast and investment rating give the company a “buy” rating. We are optimistic about the future development of the company. It is expected that the company will realize main business income of 4.079 billion yuan, 5.099 billion yuan and 6.374 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27%, 25% and 25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 526 million yuan, 738 million yuan and 976 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 70%, 40% and 32%; The corresponding EPS is 0.61 yuan, 0.86 yuan and 1.13 yuan.
Risk Tips 1) the price of raw materials continues to rise; 2) International shipping prices continued to rise; 3) The sales growth of new energy vehicles was lower than expected; 4) The company’s new customer expansion is less than expected; 5) The company’s new business development is less than expected.
