\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 87 Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) )
Investment logic
Overseas mergers and acquisitions create a technological moat, and the leading position of intelligent chassis is stable. The company's main businesses are sealing, cooling, air suspension and lightweight. The company has acquired AMK, TFH and other overseas enterprises, mastered the core technologies such as ball joint hinge and air compressor, actively promoted the localization of overseas projects, and organically combined overseas advanced technology with China's low production cost, so as to enhance the competitiveness of products.
Hanging in the air: the trend of standard configuration is clear, and the scarcity ensures the growth of the company. In the future, with the lower cost of core components and the upper configuration of Chinese models, the air suspension penetration rate is expected to continue to increase. AMK localization of the company has been successfully implemented, and the product cost is expected to be reduced by more than 20%, so as to further enhance the product cost advantage. According to the current orders, the market share of the company's air compressor products has reached more than 70%. In the future, we will expand air springs and other products to improve the value of products supplied. We expect the company's air suspension business revenue to reach nearly 900 million yuan in 2022.
Cooling: the value of new energy vehicle products is improved, and the overseas profitability is repaired through fine management. Compared with traditional vehicles, the battery module of new energy vehicles has higher requirements for temperature control, so the single vehicle value of cooling pipeline for new energy vehicles is higher. The single vehicle value of traditional vehicle cooling pipeline is about 350 yuan, that of pure electric is about 700 yuan, that of plug-in and hybrid is about 1200 yuan, and that of added program is about 1600 yuan. At the same time, the company is expected to repair overseas business through fine management, increase the proportion of profitability + high gross profit Chinese business, and thicken the profit revenue. It is expected that the gross profit margin of cooling business is expected to reach 20% in 2022.
Lightweight: China is a scarce supplier of ball joint hinge assembly, expanding categories to help performance growth. Ball joint hinge is the core component of lightweight chassis system, with high technical barriers and low localization rate. The company is a scarce supplier of ball joint hinge assembly in China, and high technical barriers ensure business growth. At the same time, the company is expected to boost revenue growth by expanding product categories. It is expected that the quantitative revenue of young people in 2022 will reach about 1.5 billion yuan.
Investment advice
The company is a scarce target with high short-term cashability and long-term logical smoothness of intelligent track. We expect that from 2022, the air suspension penetration rate will increase rapidly. With the company's orders landing one after another, the chassis performance will usher in an explosion. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 13.461 billion yuan, 15.445 billion yuan and 18.42 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 17%, 15% and 19%; The net profit is 980 million yuan, 1119 million yuan and 1354 million yuan respectively, corresponding to pe19x, 17x and 14x. With reference to comparable companies, the company is given 36 times PE in 2022, with a target market value of 40.3 billion yuan and a target price of 30.61 yuan / share, and is rated as "overweight".
Risk tips
Car sales outside China were lower than expected; Car sales outside China were lower than expected; The company's customer expansion is less than expected; The improvement of the company's overseas business is less than expected; Goodwill impairment risk; RMB exchange rate fluctuations.
