\u3000\u30 Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) 14 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) )
Event 1) the subsidiary Yiwei power plans to sign a contract with the Management Committee of Jingmen high tech Zone to invest in the construction of 20gwh square lithium iron phosphate battery project and 48gwh power energy storage battery project. 2) The company has been designated by Bosch suppliers to supply lithium-ion power batteries for auxiliary applications of electric vehicles. 3) The Ministry of industry and information technology held a symposium on lithium industry, pointing out that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, and jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price
Key investment points
Further cultivate Jingmen, expand production and then accelerate, enrich the product matrix and attack in multiple dimensions
Through in-depth cooperation with Jingmen government, the company's cumulative planned capacity has exceeded 200gwh, the total planned capacity has exceeded 300gwh, and the capacity planning is directly leading. In terms of product types, the company will further expand tire pressure monitoring, large cylinder, 48V and other categories on the basis of traditional lithium source battery, consumer battery, ternary cylinder, square iron lithium and ternary square. The further improvement of product matrix will broaden the company's profit channels and create the nth growth curve.
It has been designated as the world's leading auto parts company to eliminate the worry of production without sales
Previously, the market was worried that the company's customer expansion progress was slow, and the rapid expansion of production would face the situation of production without sales, and the low capacity utilization would lower the company's profitability. This time, the company has been designated by Bosch, the global leader in auto parts, which is enough to illustrate the strong product power of the company. We expect that the company is expected to start mass supplying 48V batteries in 2023, contributing to the increase of performance. In addition, in the field of power and energy storage, the company has also actively expanded its customers outside China and realized its production and sales; It is estimated that the shipment of iron lithium / ternary soft bag / ternary square will reach 20 / 10 / 2.5gwh respectively in 22 years, and the shipment of ternary cylinder will exceed 800 million.
Authoritative departments proposed the return of lithium price and integrated layout to eliminate supply concerns
With the stacking of goods in the industrial chain and the shutdown of lithium resource enterprises during the Spring Festival holiday, the price of lithium carbonate soared to 500000 + / ton, and the profitability of battery enterprises was under pressure. In order to better support the healthy development of new energy vehicles, China's strategic emerging industry, the Ministry of industry and information technology called on enterprises to guide the return of lithium prices. The market believes that the pricing power of lithium ore is overseas, and China's appeal is difficult to promote the correction of lithium price; We believe that the pricing power of lithium ore processing is in China, and the reasonable transfer of excess profits in processing links is conducive to the healthy development of the industrial chain as a whole. The company has a long-term vision and deeply distributes lithium resources in Qinghai, Tibet and Yunnan. With the production capacity put into operation at the end of 2022, the advantage of integrated layout will further thicken the profitability of the company.
Profit forecast and estimation
The company is a new star in the lithium battery industry, accelerating the expansion of production and superimposing the improvement of customer expansion and shipment. The lithium price returns to the superimposed integrated production capacity, and the profit hit the bottom. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20212023 will be RMB 2.904/4.230/7.213 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 75.79% / 45.64% / 70.54%, corresponding to PE of 55.36/38.01/22.29 times, maintaining the company's buy rating.
The risk suggests that the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, the capacity expansion is less than expected, and the customer expansion is less than expected.
