\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
The company released its 2021 performance express, with a year-on-year increase of 143.60%. The output and sales volume of the company’s wet diaphragm continued to grow steadily, with both volume and profit; Maintain the overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
In 2021, the profit increased by 143.60% year-on-year: the company released the performance express of 2021, and preliminarily calculated that the annual profit was 2.718 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 143.60%; Deduct non-profit of RMB 2.566 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 159.10%. According to the calculation of the performance express, the company achieved a profit of 962 million yuan in Q4 in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 103.80% and a month on month increase of 36.43%. After deducting the non-profit of 938 million yuan, the company achieved a year-on-year increase of 117.66% and a month on month increase of 45.51%. The company had previously predicted a profit of RMB 2.66-2.76 billion in 2021, and the express performance was in the forecast range, which was in line with our and market expectations.
The business volume of diaphragm increased rapidly, and the new production capacity was gradually released: the company seized the industrial development opportunity of lithium battery isolation membrane business, and the production and sales volume of wet diaphragm continued to grow steadily. It is estimated that the annual diaphragm sales volume of the company will exceed 3 billion Ping in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of more than 130%. The annual single Ping net profit is about 0.84 yuan, of which Q4 is expected to ship more than 1 billion Ping and the single Ping net profit is more than 0.9 yuan. The company’s online coated diaphragm is expected to account for more than 30% in 2021, and the product structure is further optimized. It is expected that the company’s production capacity will reach more than 5 billion square meters by the end of 2021 and 25 production lines will be added in 2022. It is expected that the production capacity will reach 7.5 billion square meters and the shipment volume will reach more than 5 billion square meters by the end of 2022, so as to further enhance the market competitiveness.
Signing supply agreements with well-known major customers: the company has successively signed supply and demand agreements with many mainstream major customers: in 2022, the company will supply Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) wet diaphragm of about 5.178 billion yuan; Supply lithium battery separator of no more than 2.5 billion yuan to China Innovation Airlines; The supply quantity to a large overseas automobile enterprise will not exceed 1.65 billion square meters from 2022 to 2024, and will not exceed 900 million square meters / year from 2025.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company’s announcement and industry conditions, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 to 3.05/5.33/7.79 yuan (the original predicted diluted earnings per share was 2.77/4.57/6.33 yuan), corresponding to 77.3/44.2/30.2 times of P / E; Maintain the overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The new energy vehicle industry policy did not meet expectations; The product strength of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The demand of the industrial chain does not meet the expectation; The price competition in the industrial chain exceeded expectations; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
