\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 899 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021 after hours on March 18. In 2021, it achieved a revenue of 225.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 15.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141%, and the non net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 14.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132%.
Comments:
The increase in volume and price and the decrease in cost have led to a significant increase in performance. The performance growth in 2021 is due to: the output of mineral gold is 48 tons (year-on-year + 17%); 580000 tons of mineral copper (year-on-year + 29%); 430000 tons of mineral zinc (lead) (year-on-year + 15%); 309 tons of mineral silver (year-on-year + 3%) and 4.25 million tons of iron concentrate (year-on-year + 10%). 2) Price: the unit price of mineral copper is 54000 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 44%), and that of mineral zinc is 14000 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 44%); The unit price of mineral silver is 3.43 yuan / g (year-on-year + 8%), and the unit price of mineral gold is 349 yuan / g (year-on-year – 4.5%); 3) Cost: the unit cost of mineral copper is 18000 yuan / ton (year-on-year – 9.5%); The unit cost of mineral gold was 176 yuan / g, unchanged year-on-year. 4) Indicator: in 2021, ROE (diluted) reached 22.1%, a new high since 2012.
It is estimated that in 2022, the output of mineral copper will increase by 47% year-on-year and the output of mineral gold will increase by 26% year-on-year. In 2022, the company plans to produce 60 tons of mineral gold, 860000 tons of mineral copper, 480000 tons of mineral zinc (lead), 310 tons of mineral silver and 3.2 million tons of iron concentrate. Among them, the output of mineral copper increased by 47% and that of mineral gold increased by 26%.
Involved in the development of lithium resources, 20000 tons of lithium carbonate is planned to be put into operation by the end of 2023. In October 2021, the company announced that it would acquire neolithium with cash of C $960 million (about RMB 4.939 billion). Neolithium’s core assets are the Argentine 3Q lithium salt lake project held by 100%. The annual report shows that the 3Q project has a total resource of lithium carbonate equivalent of about 7.63 million tons (lithium ion concentration cut-off grade 400mg / L). The annual output of 20000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate in phase I is planned to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2023, and it is planned to form an annual output of 50000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2025.
Copper output in 2025 may exceed the planning. The company’s major copper mines under construction include: Heilongjiang Tongshan Copper Mine, Fujian Zijinshan luobuling copper (molybdenum) mine, Serbia bor copper JM copper mine and Serbia chukalu peji copper gold mine. The implementation of caving mining in four underground large porphyry deposits is expected to form an annual copper production capacity of more than 200000 tons; The second phase project of Julong copper mine in Tibet is expected to increase the annual production capacity of 200000 tons of copper metal; The phase II project and some phase III projects of kamoa kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo are expected to increase the annual production capacity of 120000 tons of equity copper metal, and the output of mineral copper in 2025 may exceed the original plan of 1-1.1 million tons.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the rise of metal prices, assuming that the average price of Shanghai gold in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 is 385 / 380 / 380 yuan / g, the average price of Shanghai copper is 7 / 6.8 / 65000 yuan / ton, and the average price of Shanghai zinc is 2.5 / 2.4 / 22000 yuan / ton, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 is expected to be 22.9/25.5 billion yuan respectively (adjusted by + 2% / – 7% compared with the previous forecast), and the new net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 is expected to be 31.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46% / 12% / 22%, PE corresponding to the current share price is 12 / 11 / 9 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the downward trend of metal prices exceeded expectations, and the construction of copper gold and other projects was less than expected; Overseas operation risk.
