\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 862 Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) )
Event: the company recently released its 2021 annual report, with annual revenue of 3.81 billion yuan, yoy + 30.8%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 590 million yuan, yoy + 37.2%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 550 million, yoy + 48.9%. The performance is in line with market expectations. The completion rate of the company's revenue plan in 2021 is 100.2%, and the planned completion rate of total profit is 96.7%, basically completing the annual business task.
The quarterly revenue is relatively balanced, and the increase of 4q21 expenses affects the profit of a single quarter. In a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 990 million yuan, 940 million yuan, 920 million yuan and 960 million yuan from 2021q1 to Q4 respectively, yoy + 28.5%, - 5.5%, + 61.2% and + 66.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 240 million yuan, 150 million yuan, 180 million yuan and 20 million yuan, yoy + 27.6%, + 7.6%, + 134.6%, - 23.8%. The gross profit margin of 2021q1 ~ Q4 is 35.3%, 30.5%, 32.6% and 21.8% respectively; The net interest rates were 23.9%, 15.5%, 20.2% and 2.4% respectively. 4q21 net interest rate decreased significantly, mainly due to the increase of expenses.
The overall ability of expense control was improved, and the net operating cash flow increased. In 2021, the company's 1) management expense ratio was 6.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6ppt; 2) The sales expense ratio was 0.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.3ppt; 3) The financial expense ratio was -0.39%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.05ppt; 4) The R & D cost was 150 million yuan, yoy + 66.9%, and the R & D cost rate was 4.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9ppt. During the period, the expense rate decreased by 2.3ppt to 11.2% year-on-year, and the ability of expense control was improved. 5) Accounts receivable and bills were 1.68 billion yuan, an increase of 47.3% over the beginning of the year; The advance payment was 130 million yuan, an increase of 32.6% over the beginning of the year; The inventory was 1.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% over the beginning of the year; 6) Contract liabilities amounted to 700 million yuan, an increase of 530.6% over the beginning of the year; 7) The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 380 million, yoy + 145.3%, mainly due to the increase of accounts receivable and advance collection of AVIC composite materials.
Focusing on new aviation materials, the profitability of AVIC composite materials has increased year by year. By business: 1) new materials: the revenue is 3.61 billion yuan, yoy + 32.9%, accounting for 94.9% of the total revenue. Aviation new materials is the core sector of the company. From 2018 to 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, 290 million yuan, 490 million yuan and 680 million yuan respectively, with a CAGR of 48.0%. AVIC composites, a subsidiary, occupies an important position in the field of new materials. The prepreg produced by AVIC composites is the core product of the company. The production and delivery volume reached a record high in 2021, and the production capacity was brought into full play. 2) Machine tools: the revenue was 120 million yuan, yoy - 7.0%, and the gross profit margin increased by 9.7ppt to 8.8% year-on-year. The company will continue to promote the capital increase holding of Youcai Baimu and the equity diversification reform of Beijing Airlines biological and aviation intelligent equipment, improve the business situation, and focus on promoting the transformation of prepreg technology to non aviation market.
Investment suggestion: Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) as a leading enterprise in China's aviation carbon fiber prepreg, it is located in the hub of the industrial chain and has deep barriers under years of technology accumulation. At the same time, the company vigorously promotes the application of aviation composites in the fields of civil aircraft, rail transit and new energy, and further opens up the growth space. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 849 million yuan, 1176 million yuan and 1.635 billion yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 36x / 26x / 19x PE from 2022 to 2024. Considering the good growth certainty, sustainability and expansibility of the company, we give the company 45 times PE in 2022, EPS of 0.61 yuan / share in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 27.41 yuan and 32 times PE in 2023. For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the breakthrough of product technology has encountered a bottleneck, and the downstream growth is less than expected
