\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021, and realized a revenue of 5.75 billion yuan (+ 144.3%) in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.021 billion yuan (198.6%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 1.946 billion yuan (+ 215.3%); Q4 achieved a revenue of 2.154 billion yuan (185.34%) in a single quarter, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter of Q4 was 833 million yuan (+ 296.24%). The rapid growth of performance is that the company’s bivalent HPV continues to maintain prosperous production and sales, the demand for overseas testing increases significantly, and the company’s covid-19 raw material sales and overseas testing reagent export revenue achieve rapid growth.
Comments:
The demand of 2-price HPV market was released, and the performance increased as scheduled. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 5.75 billion yuan (+ 144.3%), vaccine revenue of 3.36 billion yuan and IVD revenue of about 2.34 billion yuan (including reagent 1.705 billion yuan, instrument 90 million yuan and active raw materials 377 million yuan). Q4’s single quarter revenue is 2.154 billion yuan. We expect the revenue of vaccine sector to be about 1.5 billion yuan and that of IVD sector to be about 600 million yuan. According to the batch issuance data disclosed by the Chinese people’s Procuratorate, the company will have 160 + batches of bivalent HPV vaccine in 2021. We expect that the batch issuance volume will be about 10 million. According to the grassroots research, the demand for bivalent HPV is strong, and the sales volume in a single quarter is expected to be equivalent to the batch issuance.
The production capacity was successfully expanded and the supply was not in danger (the pre potting in April of 21 + the new Xilin bottle production line was approved in July, and the total production capacity of bivalent HPV vaccine of the company reached 30 million pieces / year). At present, with the low penetration rate of HPV vaccination, the favorable policy of free HPV vaccination for school-age girls in many places in China and the strong market promotion ability of the company, the penetration rate of HPV vaccination is expected to increase more than expected, and the HPV market demand continues to be strong. The company’s bivalent HPV continues to maintain prosperous production and marketing and maintain rapid growth.
Strong technology platform, scarce VLPs vaccine technology platform, and heavy varieties are only the natural result of heavy technology platform. VLPs platform can bring better vaccines. The company’s unique global E. coli prokaryotic VLPs vaccine technology system combines the characteristics of good immunogenicity and high safety of virus like particle vaccine, breaks through the key technical difficulties of prokaryotic expression protein particle assembly, and achieves the perfect combination of production efficiency and immune effect. Based on this technical system, hepatitis E vaccine, 2-valent HPV, 9-valent HPV, and a new generation of HPV vaccine (in cooperation with GSK) have been listed in phase III clinic. Among the research products, the fastest-growing 9-valent HPV has completed the third clinical field vaccination, launched the head-to-head clinical trial with methadone 9-valent vaccine and the bridging clinical trial at a young age, and completed the enrollment work.
Investment suggestion: the company has built a rare virus like particle vaccine technology platform of E. coli prokaryotic expression system, broke through the key technical difficulties of prokaryotic expression protein particle assembly, and achieved the perfect combination of production efficiency and immune effect. In addition to the listed hepatitis E vaccine and bivalent cervical cancer vaccine, the bivalent cervical cancer vaccine on this platform is undergoing phase III clinical trial, A new generation of cervical cancer vaccine and rotavirus vaccine are being arranged. The production capacity of bivalent HPV has been successfully expanded, driving the rapid growth of performance. We expect that the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 will be 4.269 billion and 5.548 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 111.2%, 30.0%, EPS of 7.03/9.14 yuan, and the current price corresponding to the relative PE of 2022 / 2023 will be 39 times / 30 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: competition intensifies, R & D is less than expected, sales is less than expected, and performance is less than expected.
