\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 677 Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) )
Core view
The company released its 2021 annual report, and achieved a revenue of 24.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.7%; The net operating cash flow was 2.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 136.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 73.1%, realizing a basic earnings per share of 2.77 yuan / share, a weighted roe of 19.1%, an increase of 5.1pct compared with last year. It is proposed to pay a dividend of 0.28 yuan per share and a dividend rate of 9.2%.
The outbound volume of aluminum sheet, strip and foil will reach 1.18 million tons in 2021 and exceed 2 million tons in 2025. The company confirmed the sales volume of 1.15 million tons of aluminum sector, strip and foil in 21 years, which is 30000 tons different from the monthly operation express, which is due to the fact that some delivered goods have not arrived and the revenue has not been recognized yet. With the successive production of Mingsheng new materials and Guangyang aluminum in 21 years, the 700000 ton project of Yirui new materials will gradually release its production capacity in 22 years, and the target of 2 million tons in 25 years is expected to be achieved ahead of schedule.
With strong industrial demand and large amount of recycled aluminum, the company’s net profit per ton increased by 47.3% year-on-year. In 2021, the company’s net profit per ton of aluminum sheet, strip and foil reached 1650 yuan / ton. At present, the company’s production capacity and orders are full, and the processing fee is expected to rise further; The original 680000 tons of recycled aluminum production capacity or full production load in 22 years, 120000 tons of aluminum ash and new recycled aluminum project of Yirui new material will also be partially released in 22 years, and the profitability is expected to continue to improve.
The leading position was continuously consolidated, and the operating net cash flow increased significantly. According to the sales volume of the company’s aluminum sheet, strip and foil and the output of China’s aluminum sheet and strip (including aluminum foil raw materials) according to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the market share of the company reached 8.6% in 21 years, an increase of about 0.4pct compared with 20 years. Benefiting from the strong demand for products and the continuous strengthening of the voice of the industry, the company further strengthened the management of accounts receivable, and the turnover days of accounts receivable decreased from 13.04 days in 20 years to 12.28 days, driving the operating net cash flow higher than the net profit during the period.
R & D expenses increased by 84.2% year-on-year, promoting the transformation and upgrading of product structure. In the past 21 years, the company continued to increase R & D investment, applied for 139 patents, authorized 99 patents and carried out 10 technical research. R & D driven products have been upgraded continuously. In the past 21 years, the company has achieved remarkable results in the development of new product market, especially in high value-added fields such as automobile lightweight, new energy and new consumption. The company’s R & D in the above fields has also been strengthened, and the added value of products is expected to continue to increase
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
As the company’s profitability per ton has been greatly improved in 2021, we lowered the assumption of the company’s period expense rate. After adjustment, the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 was 3.95 yuan, 4.57 yuan and 5.75 yuan (compared with 3.47 yuan and 4.13 yuan from 2022 to 2023). According to the valuation of 12x PE of the comparable company in 2022, the purchase rating is maintained, and the target price is 47.35 yuan.
Risk tips
The progress of raised investment projects is less than the expected risk, the product upgrading is less than the expected risk, the macroeconomic growth rate slows down, and the risk of repeated global epidemics.
