\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 036 China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) )
Financial report summary: 1. The company’s performance growth maintained an upward trend, with bright growth: the annual revenue increased by 13.9%, PPOP increased by 14.4% and net profit increased by 23.2% year-on-year. Net interest income increased by 10.2% year-on-year, with both volume and price rising. Net non interest income was stable at 20.7%, of which the handling fee increased by 18.8% and other non interest income increased by 20.7%. Net profit achieved a high growth rate of 23.2% year-on-year: excellent asset quality and provision for profit. 2. Net interest income + 3.9% month on month: the scale expanded and the interest margin continued to rise. The net interest margin rose 1bp to 2.48% month on month, mainly due to the expansion of asset side growth, and the asset side yield and liability side cost remained stable; Loan interest rates stabilized. 3. Net non interest income increased by 20.7% year-on-year, the growth rate remained at a high level (1-3q21 year-on-year + 21.6%), and net handling charges and net other non interest income maintained a stable and high growth. The net handling fee increased by 18.8% year-on-year (vs cumulative + 19.7% year-on-year in the first three quarters). Driven by the value cycle chain of large wealth management, the total assets of the group’s managed customers maintained a rapid growth, driven the synchronous operation of investment management, asset custody, investment banking and other businesses, and achieved multi-point flowering of wealth management income, asset management income and custody fee income. 4. The asset quality has been maintained at a steady and excellent level: the transformation of strategic key customers to the public has been effective in recent years, and has basically become the ballast of the company’s asset quality to the public. The loan from strategic customers accounts for nearly 60% of the public loan. The retail customer base is relatively high-quality, the mortgage is the basic market, the overdue rate of small and micro credit is lower than the non-performing rate and remains low, with good risk control; In addition, with the optimization and adjustment of consumer credit customer group structure and company asset structure, the key risk indicators of consumer credit have improved compared with the end of last year, and the expediting scale and rate have returned to the pre epidemic level. In 2021, the non-performing rate was 0.91%, which was still at a low level, with a month on month decrease of 2bp; The non-performing balance also decreased. The net generation of annualized non-performing in a single quarter was only 0.48%, a slight increase of 4bp month on month, which was generally low. The provision coverage rate was at a high of 483.9%, with a significant increase of 40.7 points month on month. The loan allocation ratio was 4.42%, up 29BP month on month. 5. Demand deposits maintained a high growth rate and a high proportion. The comprehensive operation of the company and the deep cultivation of customers have become the main settlement bank and main wealth management bank for more and more enterprises / individuals. In addition, the company’s strategic customers and institutional customers have steadily contributed 40% + deposits in recent years. In 2021, the company’s total demand deposits accounted for 64.4%. The current account of enterprises increased by 22% year-on-year and that of individuals increased by 15% year-on-year.
The company’s strategy is leading and clear: explore the 3.0 model in the digital era, the business model of big wealth management, the digital operation model and the open and integrated organization model. There are 173 million retail customers. Among them, there are 3.67 million gold sunflower and above, and 37.79 million wealth product position customers. Retail customers increased by 9.5% year-on-year, while sunflower and private customers increased by 18% and 22% year-on-year respectively. The total asset balance of managed retail customers is 10.76 trillion yuan, of which the total asset balance of managed sunflower and above customers is 8.8 trillion yuan. AUM growth rate of golden card, Puka, golden sunflower and private bank management was 20.5%, 19% and 22% respectively year-on-year. The company’s total customer financing (FPA) balance is 4.9 trillion yuan, of which the non-traditional financing balance is 2.34 trillion yuan, accounting for 47.8% of the total customer financing balance, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the beginning of the year. There were 2.37 million corporate customers, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. Strategic customer loans accounted for 58.8% of corporate loans; Deposits contributed by strategic customers + institutional customers accounted for 46.5% of the total deposits.
Investment suggestion: the endogenous driving force of performance is the most sustainable, with continuous key recommendation. The current share price of the company corresponds to 2022e and 2023epb1 41X/1.23X； PE8. 51x / 7.37x (pb0.57x/0.52x, pe4.98x / 4.5X for stock banks) China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) all indicators show its sound and excellent fundamentals. At the same time, it has strong strategic implementation. In the existing system of retail business, its moat can continue to deepen and adapt to the latest development of financial technology. China Merchants Bank has high “scarcity” in banking stocks and is worthy of long-term holding. It is an excellent company that we focus on and continue to recommend.
Note: according to the performance express, we fine tune the profit forecast and predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 will be 138.4 billion and 159.7 billion (the previous values were 138.1 billion and 158.5 billion).
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
