\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 899 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) )
The company released its annual report for 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 225102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 14.681 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132%; The basic earnings per share was 0.60 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 140%. In a single quarter, in 2021q4, the company achieved a revenue of 56.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.67% and a month on month decrease of 5.05%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126% and a month on month decrease of 6.08%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 4.191 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153% and a month on month decrease of 4.25%. Compared with the annual net profit attributable to the parent company of about 15.6 billion yuan in the performance forecast, the overall performance is in line with expectations.
The sharp increase in performance in 2021 is mainly due to the resonance of price rise and volume increase. Among them, the increase of selling price and sales volume increased the gross profit by 9.068 billion yuan and 6.451 billion yuan respectively, contributing 62.54% and 44.49% of the gross profit growth of mining products respectively. In 2021, the comprehensive gross profit margin increased by 3.53pct year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the gross profit margin of mineral products caused by the rise in prices. In 2021, the gross profit margin of mineral products was 58.98%, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.27pct. It is worth noting that the gold inventory increased by 28.63% to 8070 tons year-on-year, and the “unrealized profit” increased by 55% to 2.7 billion yuan year-on-year, providing a certain elasticity for the profit in 2022.
Single quarter measurement, price and this data: 2021q4, ① sales end: mineral gold, mineral silver, mineral copper, mineral zinc and iron concentrate were + 15.26%, + 16.00%, – 8.92%, + 32.49% and – 36.15% month on month respectively. ② Price side: 2021q4, the month on month ratios of mineral gold, mineral silver, mineral copper, mineral zinc and iron concentrate are – 1.22%, – 5.35%, + 2.91%, + 8.52% and – 13.77% respectively. ③ Cost side: 2021q4, the ring ratios of mineral gold, mineral silver, mineral copper, mineral zinc and iron concentrate are + 1.43%, – 4.46%, + 8.92%, + 3.96% and + 1.57% respectively.
Look forward to the blooming of the three copper mining clusters. In the copper sector, the three world-class copper mines will contribute a large increment in 2022. According to our calculation, under the assumption of copper price (including tax) of 66000 yuan / ton, kamoa kakula, Timok and Julong copper mines may contribute net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.17 billion yuan, 5.24 billion yuan and 1.66 billion yuan respectively in 2022. In the gold sector, multi project technological transformation is expected to increase the annual output of gold by 12 tons and complete the annual capacity planning. In the new energy sector, the company acquired lithium salt lake to enter the field of new energy metals. It is expected that it will have an annual capacity of 20000 tons of lithium carbonate by the end of 2023, and the target of lithium carbonate capacity in 2025 is 50000 tons. We raised the company’s output expectation. It is estimated that the company’s copper output may reach 88 / 102 / 112 / 1370000 tons from 2022 to 2025, gold output may reach 62 / 76 / 81 / 84 tons, and copper output may exceed 1 million tons in 2023, reaching the production target of 2025 set by the company in advance.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company may be ushering in a performance. The output guidance of the main product copper, gold, zinc and lead in 2022 is significantly higher than that in 2021. The superimposed copper and gold price is expected to remain high. We continue to be optimistic about the cash out of the company’s alpha logic. We raised the profit forecast of the company. It is expected that the company will realize net profit attributable to the parent company of 25.9 billion yuan, 29.8 billion yuan and 30.6 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024. The PE corresponding to the closing price on March 18 is 11x, 9x and 9x, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the project progress is less than expected, the price of copper and gold falls, geopolitical risks, etc.
