\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 080 Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) )
The company disclosed the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the revenue was 20.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8.5%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 3.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64.4%, and the non net profit deducted was 2.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.5%. The net profit in the quarter was RMB 4.4 billion, with a year-on-year net profit of RMB 4.6 billion and a year-on-year net deduction of -2.65%. The annual net profit margin of sales was 16.62%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.67pct. In terms of revenue structure, glass fiber and products accounted for 40.74%, an increase of 6 percentage points, wind power blades accounted for 32.48%, a decrease of 12 percentage points, and lithium film accounted for 5.24%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points.
The volume and price of glass fiber increased simultaneously: during the reporting period, the company sold 1.11 million tons of glass fiber and products, realized a revenue of 8.97 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.89 billion yuan. We calculate that the price per ton of glass fiber and products of the company is 7884 yuan (year-on-year + 1584 yuan), the cost per ton is 4515 yuan (year-on-year + 157 yuan), and the net profit per ton is 2604 yuan (year-on-year + 1522 yuan). After deducting 562 million profit from the sale of rhodium powder, the net profit per ton is 2097 yuan. The high prosperity of glass fiber industry is mainly due to the strong demand in new energy vehicles, building energy conservation, electronics and appliances and the recovery of overseas demand. The 90000 ton high-performance glass fiber production line of Taibo manzhuang line 9 and the 65000 ton spinning production line of Zoucheng line 6 were ignited in September and December of 21 respectively. It is expected to contribute to the main increment of production capacity in 2022. The new glass fiber track will be arranged, and the VIP vacuum insulation board test production line with an annual output of 500000 square meters and the supporting glass fiber core material line will be completed in 2021.
High growth of lithium film business: the company sold 680 million square meters of lithium film a products, a year-on-year increase of + 76%, mainly due to the gradual release of production capacity, realizing a revenue of 1.17 billion yuan and a net profit of 88 million yuan. We calculate that the single average selling price of the company’s lithium film is 1.64 yuan (year-on-year + 0.16 yuan), and the single average net profit is 0.13 yuan. At present, the base membrane production capacity of the company exceeds 1 billion square meters, and the nominal production capacity of Tengzhou phase II in 2022h1 exceeds 1.5 billion square meters. On March 17, the company announced the production of lithium battery wet diaphragm in Tengzhou (phase III). The projects under construction include Nanjing base, Inner Mongolia phase II, Inner Mongolia phase III and Tengzhou phase III, with a total new capacity of 2.64 billion square meters, of which Inner Mongolia phase II 320 million square meters is expected to be put into operation within the year. With the release of diaphragm capacity, it is expected that the capacity utilization and yield will continue to climb. In addition, two major overseas Korean customers have achieved mass supply.
The production capacity of wind power blades iterated to products of 80m and above: the company sold 11.4gw of wind power blades, realized a revenue of 7.05 billion yuan, a net profit of 510 million yuan, and the sales volume of wind power blades was – 7.45% year-on-year. We calculate that the average price of the company’s wind power blades is 612000 yuan / GW (year-on-year-118000 yuan / GW), and the decline in the average price is mainly affected by the sharp decline in the bidding price of the whole wind power plant, with a unit cost of 515000 yuan / GW (year-on-year-40000 yuan / GW) and a unit net profit of 45000 yuan / GW (year-on-year-37000 yuan / GW). Around the development direction of large-scale wind power blades, a number of new large blade types have been launched, including si85 8 is a full glass fiber onshore large blade using glass fiber pultrusion main beam technology. At the same time, the blades of Guangdong Chaofeng Power Co., Ltd. and Yulin Chaofeng Power Co., Ltd. are declared to be 100 meters in March, of which the blades of Yulin Chaofeng Power Co., Ltd. and Yulin Chaofeng Power Co., Ltd. are declared to be 100 meters in March.
Investment suggestions: 1) roving prices are strong, the company’s glass fiber business still has an increase in production capacity this year, and the product structure is optimized; 2) The capacity of lithium film is released, and the market share is expected to increase; 3) Wind power blades launched a number of large-scale products, waiting for the industry price inflection point. The prospects of the three main businesses are good. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 4.236 billion yuan, 4.951 billion yuan and 5.275 billion yuan respectively. The closing price on March 18 corresponds to the dynamic PE of 20222024 to be 10, 9 and 8x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: China’s glass fiber supply pattern worsens; Lithium film business expansion was less than expected; The investment progress is less than expected; Fluctuation risk of raw materials.
