\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 933 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 27.2%; In the fourth quarter, the operating revenue was 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 30 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 82.1%.
Revenue increased year-on-year, and profitability was under short-term pressure due to factors such as raw materials, freight and exchange rate. The company’s revenue in 2021 increased by 23.8% year-on-year. We speculate that it is mainly due to the improvement of the market share of the company’s traditional small and medium-sized products and the rapid expansion of new energy vehicles and intelligent products. The company’s profitability is under pressure, which is mainly affected by the following factors: (1) the rise of raw material prices; (2) Rising international sea freight; (3) Exchange rate fluctuations led to an increase in exchange losses. In 2021, the company’s exchange gains and losses were about 100 million yuan, an increase of 89 million yuan compared with 2020.
The transformation of products to electric and intelligent has been accelerated, and the proportion of relevant revenue has been increasing. The company has basically achieved full coverage of aluminum alloy precision die castings for new energy three electricity system, automatic driving / ADAS image system and thermal management system. In 2021, the sales revenue of new energy vehicle products increased by about 180% year-on-year, and the revenue of thermal management system, electronic control system and electric drive system products accounted for more than 7%. Among the new projects obtained by the company in 2021, the estimated amount of new energy vehicle products accounts for about 70%, which is significantly higher than the proportion of 28% in 2020.
Clarify the product strategy of “small and medium parts + new energy three electricity system + automobile structural parts”, and the company can grow in the future. (1) Medium and small parts: the company is the global invisible champion of aluminum alloy precision die casting, and has strong competitiveness in medium and small parts products such as steering system, wiper system, power system and braking system. Affected by the epidemic and other factors, small companies with weak synchronous development ability can not continue to invest, and the concentration of the industry has gradually increased. As a leader, the company will continue to benefit. (2) New energy three electricity system + automotive structural parts: the company has the ability to transform medium and large products such as new energy three electricity system. 4400t die casting machine has been put into mass production. It is expected to import 3500t, 6100t, 8400t and other large tonnage die casting machines this year. At present, the company’s order expansion is smooth. With the release of the capacity under construction in Ningbo Cicheng Industrial Park, Anhui MAANSHAN factory and Mexico factory, it will promote the growth of the company’s performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: we are optimistic about the continuous improvement of the market share of the company’s traditional small and medium-sized products, as well as the performance increment contributed by the volume of new energy vehicles and intelligent products. Taking into account the impact of the rise in raw material prices and freight charges, we adjusted the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to be 598 million yuan and 726 million yuan respectively (the former value was 687 million yuan and 815 million yuan), and the corresponding EPS were 69 million yuan and 84 million yuan respectively (the former value was 0.80 and 0.95 yuan). It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 921 million yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be 107 yuan. The closing price on March 18, 2022 corresponds to the PE value from 2022 to 2024, which is 19, 16 and 13 times respectively. Maintain a “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the sales volume of passenger cars is lower than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; Exchange rate fluctuations; Rising freight rates; The expansion of the company’s new products was less than expected.
