\u3000\u30003 Jiangsu Lanfeng Bio-Chemical Co.Ltd(002513) 00251)
Core conclusion
2022 is expected to usher in film supply repair and box office recovery. According to cat’s eye statistics, the box office in 2021 was 47 billion yuan, about 73% of that in 2019. The popular slots such as Spring Festival, Qingming Festival, may day and 11 all exceeded or approached the same level in 2019. However, due to the impact of the epidemic on film supply, the box office in non popular slots fell significantly. If the epidemic situation is controlled in 2022, the number of high-quality films will increase, and the box office of non popular schedules will be repaired. We expect the box office to increase by 10% in 2022.
Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) has deep experience in producing comedy / love films. In the field of Comedy / love films with high ticket market share, ray has mature production experience and artist cost advantages. In recent five years, it has produced 3-5 comedy / love films with an average box office of more than 500 million yuan per year. With the enhancement of the adaptability of the film market to the epidemic, the light is expected to usher in the restoration of film production capacity. The number of live action films released each year will return to the level of 12-15 films / year before the epidemic, and the box office revenue is expected to grow synchronously.
Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) occupies the head position in the high growth animated film track. Over the past decade, the average box office market share of Chinese / American / Japanese animated films has been 10% / 16% / 27%. We expect that there is more room for the penetration of Chinese animated films. By investing in China’s main head animation producers and a large number of high-quality IP, ray has produced animation films with a cumulative box office of nearly 7.5 billion yuan. Ray is developing a series of films for high-profile animation IP such as “Fengshen”, “journey to the west” and “big fish Begonia”, with high flexibility at the box office in the future.
Investment in cat’s eye forms synergy with the issuance business. The market share of cat’s eye entertainment with Ray’s participation in Internet Ticketing is stable at more than 60%. The ticketing platform is the first choice for viewers to obtain film information, grasp the supply and demand of released films in real time, provide Internet marketing data support for ray, and form a joint force at the distribution end.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the year of 21 / 22 / 23 will be 220 / 11.0 / 1.19 billion yuan, EPS will be 0.07/0.38/0.41 yuan / share, and the corresponding PE will be 108x / 21x / 20x. The company has the leading advantage in the animation film track, and the participation of cat’s eye entertainment forms a business growth synergy with the company at the film distribution end. However, considering that the repeated epidemic has caused the phased closure of cinemas in some areas, which may affect the film release progress, the company will be given 25 times PE for 22 years, The target price is 9.38 yuan, which is covered for the first time and is rated as “overweight”.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation worsens; The film production cycle is uncertain; The box office did not meet expectations, etc.
