\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 986 Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) )
In recent January, the retail price of the company’s MCU representative products has always been strong, and the price has been highly stable in recent weeks: from 2021 to 2022, the contribution to the company’s performance increment is mainly MCU business. We regularly focus on tracking the retail price change trend of 61 MCU products, in order to track the changes of the company’s MCU business. In addition, as the leader of 32-bit MCU in mainland China, the price change also reflects the overall prosperity of the industry. In the past month (2 / 13-3 / 20), the retail prices of M23, m3 and M4 series products remained strong and basically did not fluctuate in the middle of the month, reflecting that the company’s MCU products and MCU industry still maintained a high outlook. By product: 1) M23 series: the whole series is positioned at the low end. Among the five product models tracked, the price has been strong in the past month and there is no fluctuation in the middle of the month. 2) M3 series: both high, middle and low end products are used. Among the 24 product models tracked, there are 5 / 9 / 10 models of high / middle / low end products respectively. Among them, the price of only one middle end product decreased slightly by 7%, the price of one low-end product increased by 38%, and the price of other products was stable. 3) M4 series: it focuses on medium and high-end products. The number of tracked models is 24, and there are 15 / 14 / 3 high / medium / low-end products respectively. Among them, the price of one high-end product is increased by 25%, the price of one low-end product is increased by 114%, and the price of another medium-end product is reduced by 7%. In the past week (3 / 13-3 / 20), there were 61 M23, m3 and M4 products in total, of which the price of one high-end M4 product was raised, and the price of other products was highly stable.
Announcement on March 16: the products continued to be in short supply, and the revenue from January to February increased sharply year-on-year. The company issued an announcement of RMB 1.32 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% in total revenue in 20212022. Memory, MCU and other products continue to be in short supply, the performance contribution of industry and other fields continues to improve, and the company alleviates the pressure of structural supply through supply chain management.
Announcement on March 12: in 2021, both revenue and profit increased, with a deduction of 300%. On March 12, the company released the annual performance express of 2021: 1) 2021: the revenue was 8.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 89%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 2.33 billion yuan, which was near the median value of the previous forecast, a year-on-year increase of + 165%, with a deduction of 2.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 300%. 2) 21q4: the revenue was 2.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 165%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 690 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 230%, and the non deduction was 580 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 178%.
The domestic array will continue to highlight the opportunities and improve the leading products. 1) Nor business, the third largest in the world and the leader in the mainland, continues to optimize the company’s product structure due to the distribution of storage capacity, application fields and processes. 2) MCU business, the 32-bit leader in the mainland, continues to benefit from the low self-sufficiency rate of the local market, and the upgrading of products to industry and automobile continues to bring structural optimization. 3) DRAM business has a very low self-sufficiency rate in the mainland, and self-research has developed rapidly. According to the company’s announcement, it is estimated that 860 million yuan will be purchased from private brands and 1.08 billion yuan will be purchased from DRAM on a commission basis in 22 years; From January to November of 21, the actual amount of self-developed procurement and OEM was only 189 million, with a leap year-on-year growth. According to the calculation that wafer foundry accounts for 75% of the total manufacturing cost and 30% of the gross profit margin, the corresponding revenue is 1.6 billion yuan, and self research has developed rapidly. For details, please refer to the report Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) : the perfect ending of 2021, “localization + product structure optimization” is still the main logic of 2022 issued on January 24, 2022.
Fully enter the vehicle regulation market, NAND has passed the certification, add another one, nor is fully paved, and MCU is expected to be mass produced in the middle of the year. 1) Car regulation NAND: in February this year, gd5f’s full range of localization spinand passed the car regulation level certification, which is an effective expansion of the company’s nor products. According to IHS data, NAND accounts for more than 25% of automotive memory chips, with a market size of nearly US $1 billion. 2) Car gauge nor: at present, the company’s car gauge grade products cover 2mb-2gb capacity, realize the whole line, and have been adopted in batches in many automobile enterprises. Automobile is the third largest downstream application in the nor industry, accounting for more than 18% of the market share, second only to communication and consumer electronics. The car regulatory nor will continue to promote the growth of the company’s nor business. 3) Train gauge MCU: 2021q3, gd32a series of train gauge MCU products have passed the certification. The products have been successfully rolled out at the end of last year. Now they are in the customer testing stage. It is expected to be mass produced in the middle of the year and generate revenue in the second half of the year. Automobile is the largest downstream application of MCU, accounting for 35% of the MCU market share. Seven overseas leaders account for 95% of the global market share. The self-sufficiency rate in the mainland is very low. The company’s products will effectively support some mainland demand and continue to contribute to the company’s growth power. For details, please refer to the report Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) : the whole series of spinand has passed aec-q100 vehicle regulation level certification and continues to be optimistic about the development of vehicle regulation business issued on February 28, 2022.
Investment suggestion: the profit forecast of 2021 has been adjusted according to the disclosure of performance express. It is estimated that the net profit in 2022 / 2023 will be 3.22 billion yuan and 4.02 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 33 / 27 times of PE. Considering that the company is the double leader of mainland storage + MCU industry, under the background of localization, there is strong downstream demand, continuous optimization of product structure, scarcity and growth, and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk warning event: the prosperity of MCU and nor may be lower than expected, and the OEM cost increases. The company cannot bring the risk of pressure on gross profit margin through product structure adjustment or price increase.
