\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 39 Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) )
Key investment points:
Coal power business is expected to improve in 2022. High coal prices led to the company’s power generation fuel cost rising to 22.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2021. The growth rate reached 95.46%. According to the company’s performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to lose 2.9-3.5 billion yuan in 2021. It is expected that the coal price center is expected to stabilize at a relatively high level this year. The calculation results show that when the benchmark price is 770 yuan / ton and the electricity price rises by 10%, the company’s net profit of coal power is 0.015 yuan / kWh, and the coal power business is expected to turn around.
Market-oriented transactions accounted for a large proportion, and the benefit spread “changed from negative to positive”. In 2020, the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity of the company reached 83.85%, accounting for nearly 24% in the province. In 2022, the average annual transaction price of Guangdong reached 497.04 yuan / MWh, 9.72% higher than the benchmark price, and the company is expected to benefit.
“Replacing small with large” + “replacing coal with gas”, when traditional business optimization is in progress. The company’s coal power business is being optimized through “replacing small with large” + “replacing coal with gas”. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company plans to add 6Gw of gas power. Through the operation of large units, reducing the coal consumption of power supply can also bring stable incremental cash flow, which will not bring additional burden to the company’s transformation of new energy.
The installed capacity of new energy in 2021 will contribute to the performance. In 2021, among the company’s newly increased holding capacity of 6.6172 million KW, sea breeze of 1.035 million KW, land breeze of 357700 kW and photovoltaic of 4000 kW accounted for more than 20% of the newly increased scenery. In particular, the newly increased 1 million million offshore wind power will bring significant performance increment to the company in 2022.
From Dawan district to the whole country, the new installed capacity of new energy in the 14th five year plan is 14gw. The company plans to add 14gw of new energy during the 14th Five Year Plan period (it is preliminarily estimated that wind power is about 7gw, including offshore wind power of about 2.8gw and photovoltaic power of about 7gw), and the CA GR in the four years from 2022 to 2025 is 63.18%, highlighting the company’s ambition to vigorously transform new energy. In terms of sea breeze, the company has put into operation 1.2gw and is under construction 1GW, and the progress is higher than expected. In 2021, the company strengthened the layout of new energy in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Guizhou and Guangxi, and has locked in nearly 10GW of new energy reserve resources.
Profit forecast. It is estimated that in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, the revenue will be 46.552/54.26/54.032 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be -3.086/24.4/3.355 billion yuan, the EPS will be -0.588/0.465/0.639 yuan, and the corresponding PE will be -7.52/9.51/6.92 times. Considering that the coal power business is expected to turn losses, the new energy business contributes incremental performance this year and maintains rapid growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company is given 14-17 times PE in 2022, with the corresponding share price of 6.5-7.9 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of new energy is less than expected, the power consumption is less than expected, and the coal price fluctuates sharply.
