\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 345 Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) )
In the short term, the cost pressure is controllable, and multiple measures are taken to deal with it flexibly: the epidemic situation is repeated, and the demand at the C end is improving. Although the catering end has not been recovered, the company’s dealers basically give consideration to both B and C, and the production scheduling can be adjusted flexibly (the production equipment of products B and C are similar, and the difference mainly lies in the packaging method and individual product formula), so they can face the impact of the epidemic situation more calmly. From the perspective of cost, the prices of meat and surimi, which account for a relatively high proportion of raw materials, are relatively stable, while the prices of vegetable oil and soybean protein, which account for a relatively low proportion, are still high. The price increase conducted smoothly by the company at the end of last year. In the follow-up, or by adjusting the production plan of relevant products and replacing them with animal oil, we can continue to alleviate the cost pressure.
In the long run, the traditional main industry is expected to maintain double-digit growth and continuously increase its share: quick frozen food is a sub industry with high growth rate in the food sector. According to Sullivan data, the annual growth rate of quick-frozen hot pot material industry is about 10% – 12%, and the growth rate of rice noodle industry is about 5% – 8% (Tangyuan dumpling negative growth, instant noodles 8% – 10%). The company’s quick-frozen hot pot ingredients and pasta have maintained a growth rate twice that of the industry. Behind this is the company’s leading product R & D capacity (new and secondary products account for 20%), the nationwide layout of the supply chain, and the high-quality and loyal dealer team. With the upgrading of product structure, the development of BC channels and the steady release of production capacity (maintaining the annual production capacity growth rate of 18% – 25%), the comprehensive strength continues to improve.
The three routes of “OEM + self production + M & a” of prefabricated dishes develop together, and start volume quickly with the help of channel advantages: the company has national high-quality dealers, with outstanding channel synergy advantages with prefabricated dishes (most of Mr. frozen products’ dealers come from the original dealer team of Anji). In the early stage, we should reduce the cost of trial and error in OEM mode, tap the potential large single products, and promote the promotion speed through the brand promotion and product display of Kwai TSE stores. Kwai Kwai cuisine is a small investment area with low risk, which is conducive to the guidance of consumers, and can bring new growth points to dealers. The company plans to lay 50 thousand fast food freezers in 3 years, and seize the minds of consumers in the early days of the industry. In addition, on the basis of OEM mode, Hubei Honghu Anjing company is newly invested. As the first factory in the company system that completely produces prefabricated vegetables, it will rely on Hubei Anjing and Honghu XINHONGYE to form a triangular situation and realize all-round development in all local businesses. With the increase of self production rate, the profit margin of prefabricated vegetables may be better improved.
Investment suggestion: considering the consolidation, it is estimated that the earnings per share in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 will be 2.92/3.16/4.05 yuan, maintain the “Buy-A” rating, and give a six-month target price of 141.75 yuan, corresponding to 35xpe in 2023.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; Price fluctuation of raw materials; The promotion of prefabricated dishes was less than expected
