\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 006 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) )
Key investment points
Event:
The company issued the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan (Draft), which plans to grant 4 million restricted shares to the incentive object, accounting for 0.99% of the total share capital, and the grant price is 28 yuan / share. The number of incentive objects of this incentive plan is 245, accounting for 10% of the total number of employees.
According to the performance unlocking conditions, the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company is expected to be no less than 34% from 2021 to 2025
The performance unlocking conditions of the incentive plan are as follows: 1) the first unlocking period: Based on 2020, the growth rate of revenue or net profit in 2022 shall not be less than 165% / 100% (i.e. RMB 4 / 744 million respectively); 2) The second unlocking period: Based on 2020, the growth rate of revenue or net profit in 2023 shall not be less than 300% / 280% (i.e. RMB 6 / 1.414 billion respectively); 3) The third unlocking period: Based on 2020, the growth rate of revenue or net profit in 2024 shall not be less than 365% / 295% (i.e. RMB 6.9/1.469 billion respectively); 4) The fourth unlocking period: Based on 2020, the growth rate of revenue or net profit in 2025 will not be less than 430% / 340% respectively (i.e. 79 / 1.637 billion yuan respectively).
The performance unlocking conditions of the equity incentive plan in 2022 and 2023 are the same as those of the 2021 equity incentive plan, and the grant price is also the same as that of the 2021 equity incentive plan. The two equity incentive plans grant the inertia of price and performance evaluation indicators, which shows the management’s confidence in the medium and long-term good development of the enterprise.
Regardless of the share based payment fees of previous equity incentives, according to the above unlocking conditions, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2025 is expected to be 7.4/14.1/14.7/1.64 billion yuan respectively, with a five-year compound growth rate of about 34%.
The expansion of overseas lithium battery production is expected to accelerate. The company plans to issue an additional 2.3 billion yuan to expand production and fully grasp the new market opportunities
Previously, the company announced that the total amount of funds to be raised by issuing shares did not exceed 2.312 billion yuan, of which 1.337 billion yuan was used to expand production, 303 million yuan was used to upgrade existing production capacity, and 252 million yuan was used to build overseas business network layout and basic R & D, assembly and manufacturing centers, which will alleviate the pressure of potential production capacity in the future and strengthen the layout of overseas business.
Orders in hand are full, orders from overseas customers are expected to be gradually implemented, and profits are expected to accelerate growth in the next year
In 2021, the company has full orders on hand, and the average profitability of orders is better than that in 2020. It is expected that the amount of new orders signed by the company in 2021 will exceed 5 billion yuan, which corresponds to the year-on-year improvement of profitability in 2022, and the performance is expected to accelerate growth this year and next year. LG, SK and other overseas customers are gradually starting equipment bidding. It is expected that LG will accelerate the pace of production expansion after listing and financing, and the company is expected to fully benefit as an important global supplier of back-end equipment.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 260 / 730 / 1.39 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 55%, and the corresponding PE will be 95 / 33 / 18 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The risk that the contract cannot be fully performed.
