Key investment points
Zhou viewpoint (refers to March 14 to March 20, 2022, the same below)
The Health Commission released the latest diagnosis and treatment scheme of covid-19, which is more scientific, accurate and targeted. In March 14th, the National Health Council issued the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). This version is based on the transmission characteristics and case characteristics of variant strains such as delta and Omicron, in order to effectively improve the level of standardized and homogeneous diagnosis and treatment. 1) The new diagnosis and treatment plan is mainly updated in the following aspects: adding antigen detection as a supplement. Further improve the ability of early detection of cases. At the same time, improve the diagnosis or exclusion efficiency of suspected cases. Light cases were treated by stratified management. The new version of the scheme makes it clear for the first time that light cases are subject to centralized isolation management (it is not required to go to designated hospitals for treatment), and more accurate hierarchical management can fully save and improve the utilization efficiency of medical resources. Two new antiviral drugs were added. Recommend paxlovid, ambacizumab / romisizumab combination solution (the first and only approved anti covid-19 specific drug with independent intellectual property rights in China). On November 5, 2021, Pfizer announced that the covid-19 small molecule oral specific drug paxlovid could reduce the hospitalization rate and mortality of covid-19 patients by 89% in clinical trials. The release of isolation and discharge standards were relaxed, and the monitoring time after discharge was shortened. The CT value of nucleic acid detection was reduced from 40 to 35, and the 14 day isolation monitoring after discharge was modified to 7-day home health monitoring. To some extent, it means the release of isolation and the relaxation of discharge standards.
2) at present, the epidemic prevention and control situation and policies are the core variables restricting China's service consumption. Recently, China's epidemic prevention pressure has increased, and the short-term epidemic prevention policy under the multi-point distribution of the national epidemic has become stricter, which may have another impact on consumption. At the same time, the government work report emphasizes continuing to do a good job in normalized epidemic prevention and control and promoting the recovery of life service consumption. With the diversification of epidemic prevention means, the improvement of China's medical treatment capacity and vaccination rate, the release of covid-19 specific drugs and other factors, we believe that the exploration and marginal liberalization trend of the new path of medium and long-term epidemic prevention policy is still in progress, and the characteristics different from the previous round, such as the high proportion of asymptomatic infections and the relatively small number of severe / dead patients, can also provide valuable experience for the follow-up controllable open pilot.
The recovery is expected to embrace Pro cyclical and service consumption growth. Looking forward to the future, we believe that with the superposition of favorable policies and the gradual progress of covid-19 oral specific drugs, the fundamentals of industries & companies damaged by the epidemic are expected to continue to repair. At the same time, the market expectation of the epidemic will be curbed, China's prevention and control policies will be loosened, and consumer demand & company performance repair will continue to strengthen. There may still be repeated at the bottom, but the middle line can gradually turn to positive optimism strategically. Looking forward to 2022, we are optimistic about the marginal improvement brought by the medium-term recovery and the high-quality service consumption sector with great upward flexibility, such as catering, hotels, scenic spots, Ota, outbound tourism, etc.
1) catering: the chain wave is still surging, and the willows are waiting for the flowers. Looking forward to the future, the recurrence of the epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry. In 2020, the chain rate of catering in China was only 17.4%, and the average chain rate in developed countries reached 47.2%. In the long run, the trend of industry branding chain is still accelerating, and the leaders continue to benefit. With the steady epidemic prevention and control, we are optimistic about the upward flexibility of the performance in the era of epidemic after the catering leader. We recommend jiumaojiu and Haidilao, Helens and Naixue tea. It is suggested to pay attention to Yum china-s. Catering supply chain is highly correlated with catering performance. We are optimistic about catering supply chain opportunities under the general trend of catering industrialization. We recommend Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , nongnongshan spring and Yihai international.
2) Hotels: the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the layout of leading enterprises is accelerated to recover in a cycle. According to yingdie consulting, single hotels or small and medium-sized hotels with weak profitability will be shut down in 2020 under the impact of the epidemic. With the advantages of scale, brand, member resources and capital, Jinjiang, Huazhu and ShouLv, the leaders of chain hotels, expanded against the trend during the epidemic period. In 2020, the market share of Jinjiang, Huazhu and BTS in terms of hotel rooms reached 20.2% / 13.9% / 9.2%, with a total of 43.3%. With the economic growth and consumption upgrading, the proportion of medium and high-end hotels has increased year by year, becoming the main force of the industry development. The epidemic accelerated industry integration and chain rate. With the smooth progress of the vaccine, the superposition of Pro cyclical economic recovery and the recovery of business travel demand, the recovery of hotel performance after the epidemic is expected. It is recommended to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huazhu group-s.
3) Cultural Tourism: the demand has warmed up. The cultural tourism planning of the 14th five year plan is good, and the prosperity is expected to improve. The 14th five year plan for cultural tourism emphasizes promoting the coordinated development of outbound tourism, Chinese tourism and inbound tourism. The recurrence of the epidemic in 2022 may affect the recovery process of cultural tourism for a long time. With the continuous rise of China's vaccine coverage, the performance elasticity of high-quality targets is sufficient and has layout value. Under the background of stable epidemic prevention and control forms and policy support, focus on recommending the long-term performance leader Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , the scarce private leisure scenic spots, and Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , which benefits from the booming demand for peripheral tourism and opens up the space for stock growth; Recommend China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , with high-quality products and short-term passenger flow pressure. It is suggested to pay attention to Fosun tourism culture, Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Mount Emei, Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) . OTA & outbound tourism business is expected to recover, and overseas cultural tourism is expected to continue to benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to the same way travel and Ctrip group-
\u3000\u3000S， Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ， Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) ， Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) 。
Risk tips: risks such as the continuous spread of the epidemic, macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes; Risk of fierce competition in the industry; The progress of business transformation, market development and capacity improvement is lower than the market expected risk.
