Key investment points
Performance of the sector this week: the overall market composite index fell this week (March 13-march 18). The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 325107, down 1.77% this week, the Shenzhen cost index fell 0.95%, the small and medium-sized board 100 index fell 1.67%, and the basic chemical industry sector fell 2.83%. Performance of individual chemical stocks this week: the chemical sector fell slightly this week, slightly higher than the big market. Among the top gaingaingaingaingaingaingaingaingainamong the stocks that have been among the top among among the top gaingaingaingaingaingaingaingaingaingainamong the top ones are Jiangsu Jingxue Insulation Technology Co.Ltd(301010) and ST Chengxing. On April 1, 2022, China will officially implement the standards set by the “double carbon” goal. Provinces and cities will gradually carry out carbon emission work in the construction field. Affected by the news, the A-share building energy conservation sector opened higher. As a hot stock of building energy conservation and cold chain logistics, Jiangsu Jingxue Insulation Technology Co.Ltd(301010) 18, it rose by nearly 20%.
Crude oil market dynamics this week: the increase of US crude oil inventory superimposed on the weakening of concerns about oil supply shortage, and the crude oil price fell sharply. Ice oil distribution closed at US $107.93/barrel (Mom – 4.21%); WTI crude oil closed at US $104.70/barrel (Mom – 4.23%). Tracking of key chemicals: among the chemicals we are concerned about this week, potassium sulfate (+ 16.88%), butadiene (+ 11.11%), urea (+ 9.68%), liquid ammonia (+ 9.30%) and sulfur (+ 9.03%) led the price increase. This week, the overall start-up of potassium sulfate Market is low, there are few goods on site, and the market price of potassium sulfate is rising steadily. With the support of the high external market of butadiene this week, the prices of mainstream suppliers in China continued to rise, and the market prices rose sharply. However, the market demand fell in the second half of the week, and the prices fluctuated at a high level. This week, the industrial and agricultural demand in the lower reaches of urea was strongly supported, and the international price of chemical fertilizer rose wildly, and the price was constantly pulled up.
Polyurethane materials for pavement are gradually popularized, and the market space is broad: after enduring the repeated action of long-term load and external environmental factors, traditional cement concrete has cracks, pockmarks, pits, corner fractures, peeling caused by salt freezing and other diseases, and the later maintenance is relatively difficult, the repair time is long and the cost is high. In contrast, polyurethane concrete has excellent properties and obvious advantages in strength, wear resistance, durability and composite properties. In order to meet the demand for replacing traditional materials in highway construction, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) actively layout polyurethane concrete materials, with a promotion volume of more than 1000 tons and a laying length of 10 kilometers in 2021. With the increasing demand for urban drainage system and the replacement demand for traditional asphalt materials in highway construction, the application scenarios are gradually enriched, and polyurethane concrete gradually ushers in a broad market space.
Main lines of Chemical Investment: (1) cyclical growth stocks are expected to improve marginally: since the turning point of Q2 chemical boom in 2020, the prices of some chemicals have risen to historic highs. As the mismatch between supply and demand moves towards balance and superimposes the downward pressure of the economy, the traditional chemical cyclical stocks have made a sharp correction. We believe that we should focus on the industry leaders with continuous production expansion capacity in the 14th five year plan, supplement the price with quantity, especially the high-quality companies that embrace change and look for the second growth curve, which are expected to cross the cycle in the medium and long term. Key recommendations: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , satellite chemistry, China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , lithium iron phosphate industry chain and soda ash industry chain. (2) Focus on high-end manufacturing and supporting materials for high-tech industries, including biosynthesis, electronic materials, degradability, tail gas treatment, carbon fiber, etc. Key recommendations: Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp.Ltd(600378) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . (3) For the pesticide industry chain entering the business cycle, it is recommended to: Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) .
Risk warning: crude oil supply fluctuates sharply; The situation of trade war worsened; Risk of large exchange rate fluctuations
