Core conclusion
Key investment points: the introduction of favorable regulatory policies has a positive impact on the valuation improvement of securities companies for a long time. The resumption experience shows that the prosperity is the core main line of the rebound, focusing on the core targets of wealth management and the top securities companies that will benefit from the comprehensive registration system. The pressure on the life insurance base is gradually reduced, and Q2 new orders are expected to usher in marginal improvement year-on-year; The regulatory voice supports the allocation of equity assets to insurance capital, forming support for the investment side.
In terms of securities companies, regulatory policies are an important factor affecting the valuation of securities companies. The introduction of favorable policies has a positive impact on the improvement of securities companies’ valuation for a long time. 1) Last week, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting to study the current economic situation and capital market issues, and the first bank, the two sessions and the administration of foreign exchange conveyed the spirit of the special meeting of the financial commission of the State Council. The CSRC mentioned that “we will solidly promote the full implementation of the reform of the stock issuance registration system, improve the bond financing support mechanism of private enterprises, and promote the development of venture capital”, “the new regulations on the supervision of overseas listing of enterprises are expected to be implemented, which will help qualified enterprises to list abroad”. The recovery experience shows that the prosperity is the core main line of the rebound, focusing on the core targets of wealth management (China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) etc.) and the head securities companies that will benefit from the comprehensive registration system ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) etc.). In addition, the stability of Hong Kong’s financial market is also concerned. We believe that Chinese securities companies that will benefit Hong Kong stocks. 2) In 2021, China stock market news realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 8.55 billion, yoy + 79%, with a weighted average roe of 22.5% 1%, EPS is 0.83 yuan, yoy + 73%. Among them, the net profit of 21q4 was 2.32 billion yuan, yoy + 68%, qoq-7.5%. Benefiting from the improvement of market activity, the securities business of China stock market news achieved high growth, and the market share of brokerage and two financial services continued to increase. The scale of fund sales has increased significantly, and the market share has continued to increase.
In terms of insurance, the new Q2 life insurance policy is expected to usher in marginal improvement year-on-year. The regulatory voice supports the allocation of equity assets to insurance capital, forming support for the investment side. 1) Liability side: the base pressure is reduced, the new life insurance orders of Q2 listed insurance companies are expected to see marginal improvement year-on-year, and the premium of head property insurance companies is expected to maintain steady growth. In the short term, the repeated epidemic has brought some pressure to the liability side of life insurance, but as the first quarter comes to an end, the base high has passed, and the year-on-year gap of new orders in the second quarter is expected to narrow; Affected by the gradual increase of the benchmark premium base of automobile insurance, the premium growth rate of Q2 head property insurance companies is expected to decline steadily, but will remain stable. 2) Investment side: the expectation of interest rate reduction failed, and the supervision voiced support for the allocation of equity assets by insurance capital, forming support for the investment side. After the financial data weakened in February, the market expectation of interest rate reduction increased. On March 15, the central bank announced to carry out the medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 200 billion yuan and the reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan in the open market. The interest rates of MLF and reverse repurchase were the same as those in the previous period, and the expectation of interest rate reduction failed. On March 16, the CBRC held a special meeting and proposed to “give full play to the advantages of long-term investment of insurance funds, guide insurance institutions to allocate more funds to equity assets, and support insurance companies to increase capital market investment, especially the stock investment of high-quality listed companies, through various channels such as direct investment, entrusted investment and public funds”, The regulatory voice supports the allocation of equity assets to insurance capital, which helps to thicken the income and support the investment side.
3) the low base advantage lays the foundation for the 22-year performance: listed insurance companies will usher in the centralized disclosure period of annual reports. Affected by industry transformation, both supply and demand decline, interest rate decline and policy adjustment, we expect the performance of insurance companies to be relatively low in 21 years, but it has been reflected in the current valuation. Light pack, low base advantage is expected to lay the foundation for 22 years of performance.
Investment suggestions: recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , and pay attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H), AIA and China property insurance.
Risk tips: policy risk, market risk, interest rate risk, repeated epidemic and credit risk.
