\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 933 Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) )
From mid-2020 to now, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) has suffered great pressure in operation under the influence of new business competition, terminal consumption, epidemic situation, price and self-management adjustment. We believe that at the current time point, with the development of antitrust in the field of platform economy and the decline of the willingness of participants in the community group purchase and money burning mode, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) competition pattern may usher in a fundamental change. The superimposed CPI cycle is expected to rise from the bottom and its own business cycle, and the company may have ushered in a turning point of long cycle in its operation; In addition, in the process of iterative transformation of fresh retail, according to the inherent advantages of procurement scale, refined operation system and existing customer groups, the company actively makes up for the digital bottom construction, and adjusts the supply chain system, store format and online layout. Its organization and management system has both efficiency and toughness, significant competitive barriers and broad imagination space, and its long-term development is worth looking forward to.
Superposition of internal and external operations, Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) or meet the inflection point of operation
On the whole, the whole fresh retail is moving from the state of life and death and common loss to the return of rational competition on the premise of self-profit. In terms of community group buying, we believe that the weakening of investment willingness of JD and Alibaba in the early stage is the wind vane of the whole industry; In the front warehouse modes such as Ding Dong buying vegetables and daily excellent fresh food, under the deteriorating financing environment, independent profitability has become the key to survival, subsidies have decreased, gross profit margin has increased significantly, and external competition is coming out of the inner volume.
CPI is expected to rebound from the bottom. In terms of categories, for daily consumer goods, ① since 2021, the scissors gap between CPI and PPI has continued to expand, and the middle reaches of consumer goods continue to face greater cost side pressure; ② As of March 15, 2022, pig prices are generally at the position of 12 yuan / kg, below the low level, and are expected to rebound in the future.
In 2021, Yonghui was at the bottom of the business cycle. The company took the initiative to adjust inventory and explore business forms such as warehouse stores, with low gross profit and high cost rate. In 2022, the company will go into battle with light equipment, and the business end is expected to continue to improve.
Actively explore warehouse stores and layout online, Yonghui sails far and has deep barriers
Yonghui actively explores new retail formats and member warehouse stores, which have unique advantages and are at the forefront of the times. We believe that, driven by the improvement of economic level, the increase of private car ownership and the slowdown of economic development, China's warehouse stores are at a time of development and have long-term investment value. Yonghui's warehouse stores rely on the unique advantages of local supply chain, and have made corresponding adaptation in terms of store and online.
Relying on the existing stores, Yonghui carries out the online retail mode of supermarket to home. Yonghui has made preparations in app iteration, store digital upgrading, supporting infrastructure and other aspects, and the proportion of online sales has been increasing.
Investment suggestion: under the background of antitrust in the field of platform economy, community group purchase and money burning mode, the willingness of participants is declining, the growth rate is slowing down, and the tax norms of small and medium-sized enterprises, the marginal of physical channels is improved, and attention is paid to the opportunity to revalue the value of offline physical retail channels. As the same store became positive year-on-year, the company's same store forecast and gross profit margin were raised, and the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from -2.71 and 82 million yuan to 77 and 1.302 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, giving an overweight rating.
Lower than expected consumption, lower than expected risk, less than improved stock price, poor management, etc
