\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 318 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) )
Last year, the decline in the sales of serious illness insurance and the China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) incident dragged down the business performance of the whole year
In 2021, due to the impact of the epidemic, the sales of serious illness insurance decreased, the value of new life insurance business was about 37.9 billion yuan (year-on-year – 24%), the value rate of new business decreased by 5.5 percentage points to 27.8%, and the embedded value was 876.5 billion yuan (+ 6.3%). The operating profit of RMB 14.9 billion is attributable to the parent group, of which the operating profit of RMB 14.9 billion is attributable to the parent group (+ 10.16 billion), and the net profit of RMB 14.9 billion is attributable to the parent group.
In the whole year, the group’s external dividend was 41.5 billion yuan, with a corresponding dividend of 2.38 yuan (+ 8.2%) in cash per share. At the same time, it repurchased 3.9 billion yuan worth of shares, accounting for 4.4% of the current market value of the group. The scale of the group’s A-share repurchase plan is 5-10 billion yuan. At the same time, it is abundant in cash. It is expected to continue to maintain a high dividend level this year, making the current share price of the group attractive.
Life insurance: the per capita capacity of agents is at a high point, and the structure is gradually optimized
At the end of 2021, the number of life insurance agents was Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) (- 41.4%), but the per capita new business value was 39000 yuan (- 4.1%), the channel quality was relatively stable, at the same time, the proportion of college or above increased by 2.4 percentage points compared with the beginning of the year, and the per capita first year premium reached 7550 yuan (+ 22%), and the structure was gradually optimized.
Auto insurance premiums resumed growth, the market share increased, and the fund proportion increased in asset allocation
In the same period, the premium of auto insurance was 188.8 billion yuan (- 3.7%), which has been gradually repaired. In the fourth quarter, it increased by 8.7% year-on-year, the market share increased by 0.5%, and the comprehensive cost rate decreased by 0.7%. On the other hand, the return on investment in net assets was 4.6% and the total return on investment was 4.0%. The allocation proportion of bond funds and equity funds increased by 1 and 0.5 percentage points respectively.
Investment suggestion: steady growth policy, improve the valuation of stock insurance policies, maintain the target price and maintain the “buy” rating
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the group from 2022 to 2024 will be 121.5/137.5/156 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.5/13.2/13.5%, diluted EPS of 6.65/7.52/8.54 yuan, and the corresponding PEV of the current stock price is 0.58/0.52/0.47x. The impact of last year’s Huaxia incident and the decline in sales of serious illness insurance dragged down the group’s performance, but at present, the per capita capacity of agents has been maintained at a high point, and the liability side is expected to be gradually repaired. At the same time, with the force of the steady growth policy, the sound assets ushered in good conditions. We maintain the target price of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) of 66-71 yuan and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of new orders are poor, and the risk of asset side is increased
