\u3000\u3000 China Stock Market News ( East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) )
The valuation has a margin of safety, the ecosystem and user advantages are stable, and the "buy" rating is maintained
In 2021, the company's total operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.09/8.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 59% / + 79%, which was in line with our expectations. In 2021, the stock trading volume of the whole market and the holding scale of non commodity funds increased significantly, and the market share of the company's securities and funds sold on a commission basis continued to rise, driving the high growth of profits. As of March 17, the index of partial equity funds in 2022 fell by 15.8%. We revised down the expectation of the holding scale and trading volume of partial equity funds for the whole year, lowered the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 9.92/12.67 billion yuan (11.12/14.42 billion Yuan before the adjustment), and increased the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 to 15.92 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.90/1.15/1.44 yuan from 2022 to 2024 respectively. The current share price corresponds to 28.9 times of PE in 2022, and the valuation has a margin of safety. The company's Internet wealth management ecosystem and a large number of users have outstanding competitive advantages. A new phase of equity incentive will be completed in 2021, the R & D investment will be accelerated, the market share is expected to continue to increase, and the asset management, wealth management and institutional business may be new highlights of subsequent growth to maintain the "buy" rating.
The market share of non commodity based sales and ownership scale has increased significantly, and the daily living users have increased rapidly
In 2021, the income from fund consignment sales was 5.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71%, and the scale of non commodity based consignment sales was 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 92%. We estimate that the market share of the company's non commodity based sales reached 8.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 2.9pct. According to the data of China Foundation Association, the non commodity holding scale of Tiantian fund at the end of 2021q4 was 673.9 billion yuan (432.4 billion yuan at the end of 2021q1), with a market share of 4.19%, an increase of 0.71 PCT compared with 2021q1, and the holding market share continued to increase. In 2021, the daily average number of active users of Tiantian fund platform was 3.95 million, a year-on-year increase of + 33%. In 2021, the seat commission income of Dongcai securities was 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 90%, or related to the Commission distribution caused by the high increase of the scale of public offering and sales on a commission basis. The C-end advantage of the company is stable, the institutional business continues to improve, and it is optimistic that the market share of non goods ownership of the company will continue to increase.
The market share of brokerage and financing continued to grow, the cost control ability was strong, and the conversion of debt to equity consolidated the capital
(1) in 2021, the income of securities brokerage business was 4.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 52%. The average daily stock turnover of the market was 1.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 25%. It is expected that the share of the company's stock trading market in 2021 will reach 3.57%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.51pct. The net income of futures brokerage business was 710 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 87%, exceeding expectations. At the end of 2021, the financing fund was 43.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44%, and the market share of two financing businesses reached 2.54%, a year-on-year increase of + 0.51pct. (2) In 2021, the company's administrative expenses and R & D expenses totaled 2.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39%, accounting for 22% of the total operating revenue, a decrease of 2.8 PCT compared with 2020, and the cost rate continued to decline. In 2021, Dongcai securities was approved to pilot the investment consulting business of public funds. The company's 15.8 billion convertible bonds were converted into shares in March 2022, and the capital of the securities company was further consolidated.
Risk warning: the sharp fluctuation of stock market causes the uncertainty of brokerage profit; The scale expansion of public offering was less than expected.
